By John Richardson WE NOW know is that China’s real GDP growth is probably heading into negative territory, perhaps by as early as Q4 – and if not by then, certainly in 2015. But in order to fully answer “how bad will it get before it gets good again?” we need to also evaluate just how […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Heads For Negative Real GDP By As Early As Q4
By John Richardson “BY NOW I think most folks are aware of and agree with the blog’s views on China,” a chemicals industry source said last week. “The only things that no one seems to know for certain are 1) how bad will it get before it gets good? 2) To what extent can the […]
China: Do You Really Know Where Your Product Ends Up?
By John Richardson AS a senior Chinese official announces that investigations into metals trading fraud have been extended from 13 to 24 provinces, and that $10bn worth of fraud could be involved, it stands to reason that these complex webs of transactions do not just include metals. And so you need to ask yourself this […]
Diesel Demand In China To Fall As Banks Hoard Cash….
..…LETTERS OF CREDIT TAKE 5-6 WEEKS TO OBTAIN, UP FROM 5-6 DAYS – THAT’S IF YOU GET THEM AT ALL By John Richardson DIESEL consumption is another crucial measure of China’s real economic growth because China is the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. This means lots of demand for diesel to run trucks, trains and back-up electricity generators etc. […]
China And Tearing Up The Rule Book: A Ten-Point Guide
By John Richardson WE thought it would be helpful for chemicals to summarise our thoughts on China as chemicals and other companies prepare their strategies for 2015. See our ten-point guide below, with relevant links to our previous coverage and coverage elsewhere: The Deng Xiaoping growth model went on far for too long, especially post […]
Why China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign Has To Continue
By John Richardson CHINA’s anti-corruption campaign is now more than two years old and continues to generate a great deal of criticism. These criticisms include claims that it sometimes targets the wrong individuals – and that the campaign might end up being all about China’s senior leadership cementing their positions, rather than tackling the underlying […]
China’s Demand For Lending In Steep Decline
By John Richardson WHEN the demand for lending in any economy starts to decline, you know that the people who make up that economy have an understanding that things are likely to get worse before they get better. Hence, chemicals and other companies need to take note of the latest survey from the People’s Bank […]
Global Petchems Industry Must Prepare For More Difficult 2015
THE direction of Asian polyethylene markets, once again, serves as a good guide for the overall global petrochemicals industry. Producers in every region and in every sector of our industry should, therefore, take note of what follows. They must prepare for what we worry will be a much more challenging 2015. By John Richardson […]
China’s Lending Up Just 5% As Govt Refuses To Blink
By John Richardson CHINA’S official bank lending was up just 5% in January-August of this year compared with the same period in 2013, according to some more value-added data crunching by our fellow blogger, Paul Hodges. It is absolutely critical to put this 5% increase into this context: •The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the […]
China Excess Phenol Capacity A New Strategic Tool
By John Richardson STANDARD Western cost-per-tonne analysis has never really been applied in China’s petrochemicals industry – and it never will be applied. In the past, we have seen how petrochemicals plants have often been run at operating rates of 100% or more, even in the lousiest of market conditions, in order to guarantee supplies […]