By John Richardson TEN years, a Japanese contact told me, “When we eventually work out the right set of economic policies to get us out of our problems, we will all get behind those policies.” I gave him a call last week to update our discussion and he said, “The good news is we […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Next Target: Paraxylene Self-Sufficiency?
By John Richardson ONLY a few years ago, people were discussing the great opportunities in purified terephthalic acid (PTA) as a globally traded product. I can remember confident talk of strong opportunities for export-based projects – especially, of course, projects that targeted the key China market. And yet, remarkably, during the first day of the […]
Saudi Arabia Can Withstand Years Of Lower Oil Prices
By John Richardson QUITE a common argument out there is that if and when higher cost US shale oil production shuts down, oil prices will start creeping up again – and they will soon reach close to $100 a barrel again by Q1 of next year. Here is another scenario that I think is worth […]
South Korea: No Room For Complacency
By John Richardson I have long loved South Korea, ever since I first visited the country back in the late 1990s. The sheer guts, determination and get-up-and-go of South Koreans have to be admired, especially when you put this into the context of the almost total devastation inflicted by the Korean War. And South Korea continues […]
South Korea: Coming To Terms With Demographics
By John Richardson ACCUMULATING yet more debt was the very last thing that South Korea needed and here is why: South Koreans had average debts 1.6 times their disposable incomes before July of this year. This compared with 1.4 times disposable incomes in the US in 2007, before the sub-prime housing bubble went pop. And […]
Global Polyethylene: A Painful Balancing Act
By John Richardson HERE are a few important facts about polyethylene (PE): China accounted for 30%, or 2.35m tonnes , of global imports of linear low-density PE (LLDPE) in 2013 (see the above chart). It accounted for 43% of high-density (HDPE) imports. This represented 4.73m tonnes of shipments to China. And in the case of […]
China Exports: Whatever It Takes To Boost Volumes
By John Richardson HERE is a reminder of some key facts about the Chinese economy: Investment, in the form of local real estate, infrastructure and industrial capacity accounts for around 50% of the country’s GDP. China’s total investment levels are 10-15% of GDP higher than comparable countries, such as Japan and South Korea, when they […]
Fed Policies Increase Emerging Market Poverty
By John Richardson THERE are 2.8bn people – 40% of the world’s population – who live on $2-10 a day. These people are “the fragile middle”, according to the Financial Times, as they are constantly in danger of falling back into poverty. And those risks have been greatly escalated by the policies of the US Federal Reserve. Here […]
China Polyethylene: What To Tell Your Boss
By John Richardson YOU are a junior researcher working for a global polyethylene (PE) producer. This is your opportunity to help change “group thinking” and so greatly improve your career prospects. It is not going to be easy, especially if your boss tells you, “I’ve been here many times before. China is just […]
US Petrochemicals: The Way Forward
By John Richardson ANYBODY out there prepared to make a guess? How long are these fantastic earnings for US petrochemicals companies in the key polyolefins space going to last? Six months, 12 months, 18 months or perhaps even longer? The question then becomes how financial analysts, investors, stock markets and therefore companies will respond when […]
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