By John Richardson OIL prices rallied yesterday on an unexpected fall in inventories at Cushing in the US to 61.7 million barrels for the week ending 24 April (see the above chart). This was a decline of 514,000 barrels over the previous week, which compared with forecasts of an increase of 400,000 barrels. So does […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Long, Hard Struggle To Reform Local Govt Financing
By John Richardson A story that moves financial markets doesn’t have to be true. All that matters is that the narrative convinces enough people for a sufficient period of time to move markets either up or down, thus allowing speculators to make money. And these days, because of high-frequency computer-driven trading, the credibility of any […]
China 19% PP Production Increase Should Be No Surprise
By John Richardson THE chart above should come as no surprise whatsoever to anybody in the global polypropylene (PP) business. Here is why: Many of China’s new PP plants are coal-based and so are located in inland provinces where job creation is more important than how much money these plants will actually make per tonne […]
The Chemicals “Recovery”: Seeing Through The Flawed Logic
By John Richardson AROUND 90% or more of the price movements in most chemicals and polymers are tied to crude oil. Add to that the pick-ups in buying than can occur from time to time, based on supply and demand factors specific to particular chemicals markets, and you end up with a devilishly difficult job […]
European Petchems: Necessity is Again The Mother Of Invention
By John Richardson WHEN has a European cracker gone beyond its useful life? Forty or 50 years? Or maybe if you spend the right amount of money, it can last for a great deal longer. Devoting enough ingenuity and capital on boosting your cracker’s energy efficiency and feedstock flexibility can also secure the future of […]
Rising US Oil Supply And How Innovation Never Stands Still
By John Richardson NECESSITY is the mother of new inventions, and also of innovations that make improvements on old inventions. When, for example, oil and gas prices were sky-high in the US, this prompted the late and great George Mitchell (see right) to persist with research that led to modern hydraulic fracturing techniques. Now we […]
How To Select Your Advice On China: Two New Litmus Tests
By John Richardson SORTING out those who get it from those who either don’t want to admit they are wrong or don’t even know that they are wrong is vital for chemicals businesses as the New Normal progresses. So how do we spot the difference between the people we should ignore and those we need […]
Why Getting It Wrong Really, Really Matters Today
By John Richardson It is never easy to admit you are wrong because of the loss of “face” (and for me “face” is just as much an issue in the West as it is in Asia. It just presents itself in different forms in different countries and regions). Everyone worries that their standing with their peers […]
Just “Black Swans” That We Can’t Predict? Nonsense
By John Richardson HERE is a list of just a few recent what were are told were “Black Swan” events: The Lehman Bros-triggered global financial crisis. China’s 2008-2013 economic stimulus package. Last year’s collapse in oil prices. China’s economic and environmental about turn. We are also told because these were Black Swans – freak events […]
Do Business On China’s Terms Or Do No Business At All
By John Richardson THE above slide summarises where I think the future opportunities will lie for overseas polyolefins producers in the key China market. This is taken from my recent speech at the ICIS 4th World Polyolefins Conference in Amsterdam. The main chance will not, it simply cannot, lie in providing vast quantities of commodity trade […]
Jump to page: