By John Richardson CHINA’S decision to scrap its one-child policy will obviously not make any significant difference to labour shortages for at least the next 20 years or so as that is how long it will take all the new children to grow up and join the workforce. This is assuming there is a sudden […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Chemicals Exports Surge As Everything Changes
By John Richardson IN the good old days everybody could very easily export just about all their surplus chemicals and polymers volumes to China for two very obvious reasons. Firstly, even real GDP growth, never mind the fabricated government numbers, was nearly always close to or actually in double digits. And secondly, China was short of […]
Here Is Another “One Billion Consumers”: The Over 55s
By John Richardson FOR too many years people have shuffled from one board meeting to the next, and one conference to the next, in order to talk meaninglessly about “the rise of China’s middle classes” and “one billion Chinese consumers”. Why the talk has essentially been meaningless is because firstly, people bother to try and […]
China’s Latest Rate Cut: At Long Last The Right Reaction
By John Richardson HERE is the good news about China’s latest interest rate cut and reduction in its bank-reserve requirement: Most people are at long last seeing these types of measures for what they really are, which is an attempt to reduce the short-term pain. In the past, too many people – both short-term investors and the long-term […]
Oil Analysts Should Have Taken “O Level” History In The 1970s
By John Richardson WHEN Abraham Darby discovered a way of using coke to smelt iron ore in place of increasingly expensive wood in 1709 his technology didn’t stand still. Armies of engineers sought ways of making his process better, which led to the pivotal introduction in 1828 of “hot blast” technology. The “hot blast” breakthrough […]
2016 Petchems Budgets: The Risks Of Expecting Even More
By John Richardson WHEN you have had a terrific year your boss will often expect the following year to be even better. But what if the terrific year you have had is down to nothing more than good luck? “When we were planning for 2015 we knew that the economic background would be hard and […]
Polyethylene Is Just Another Commodity – It Is Nothing Special
By John Richardson THERE is a story circulating out there that polyethylene (PE) is a “special commodity” in that it is not tied to the downturn in other commodities that we have seen over the last year. Whilst most people are coming around to the sensibel view that iron ore demand growth will never be […]
India: How The “Local For Local” Model Can Boost Growth
By John Richardson IT is just silly, the idea that India can become an export-based heavy manufacturing powerhouse to rival China. Here are four very good reasons why this cannot happen: China, despite its rising labour costs in its eastern provinces, has vast supply chain advantages and far superior infrastructure which keeps getting better and […]
Climate Change: Taking Out An Insurance Policy
By John Richardson WOULD you get on board a plane without taking out travel insurance to protect your family? Of course not, even though the chances of you being involved in a plane crash are one in 9 million. And would you step into an ocean where dangerous sharks swim, especially if you live where […]
Polyethylene: Seeing The Wood Along With The Trees
By John Richardson THE Asian polyethylene (PE) business might be tempted to continue to think, “Crisis? What crisis?” (bear with me. When we have dived down into the details, the above chart will make sense to you). Integrated naphtha-based high-density PE (HDPE) margins in Northeast Asia, for instance, still averaged $553/tonne for 2015 up until […]