THE BIG PE exporters to China saw their sales to country decline by a further $1bn year-on-year in January-July 2023 versus January-June 2023.
Asian Chemical Connections
China could be a net exporter of 9m tonnes of PP by 2040
CHINA’S PP net imports could total 5m tonnes in 2040, or the country may instead be in a net export position of 9m tonnes.
Big HDPE exporters see another $700m of estimated China sales losses in one month
NINE OUT OF CHINA’S top 10 high density polyethylene (HDPE) import partners saw their sales to China fall by an estimated total of $1.8bn in January-July 2023 versus the same period last year. Meanwhile, the remaining member of the top 10, the US, saw its sales increase by $233m.
Global PE capacity may have to be 23m tonnes/year lower in 2023-2030 to end the downturn
GLOBAL PE capacity in 2023-2030 may have to be 23m tonnes/year lower than the ICIS base case to bring markets back into balance
Global HDPE capacity may have to be 13m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030 to return to healthy operating rates
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
An almost perfect LLDPE buyers’ market as major producers see big China sales declines and losses in export volumes.
SEE ABOVE estimated LLDPE H1 2023 sales in China versus average H1 1999-2022 sales. Total estimated losses amounted to $594m among some of the big global producers.
Exporters of HDPE lose estimated $1.1bn of China sales in H1 2023
Total estimated losses by eight of the major HDPE exporting countries in sales to China was $1.1bn in H1 2023 versus H1 2022.
Global PP crisis: Why capacity may need to be 18m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030
GLOBAL PP capacity may have to be a total of 18m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030 to return operating rates to the historically strong levels
The China debate seems to be over so let’s move on to other markets
With China’s demand growth at 1-2% and with complete self-sufficiency possible, PP exports must look to break their China dependence.
Why China could become self-sufficient in HDPE
CHINA’S NET IMPORTS of HDPE could be either 126m tonnes in 2023-2040, 38m tonnes or as low as 7m tonnes
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