THE BIG PE exporters to China saw their sales to country decline by a further $1bn year-on-year in January-July 2023 versus January-June 2023.
Asian Chemical Connections
CHINA’S PP net imports could total 5m tonnes in 2040, or the country may instead be in a net export position of 9m tonnes.
NINE OUT OF CHINA’S top 10 high density polyethylene (HDPE) import partners saw their sales to China fall by an estimated total of $1.8bn in January-July 2023 versus the same period last year. Meanwhile, the remaining member of the top 10, the US, saw its sales increase by $233m.
GLOBAL PE capacity in 2023-2030 may have to be 23m tonnes/year lower than the ICIS base case to bring markets back into balance
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
SEE ABOVE estimated LLDPE H1 2023 sales in China versus average H1 1999-2022 sales. Total estimated losses amounted to $594m among some of the big global producers.
Total estimated losses by eight of the major HDPE exporting countries in sales to China was $1.1bn in H1 2023 versus H1 2022.
GLOBAL PP capacity may have to be a total of 18m tonnes/year lower in 2024-2030 to return operating rates to the historically strong levels
With China’s demand growth at 1-2% and with complete self-sufficiency possible, PP exports must look to break their China dependence.
CHINA’S NET IMPORTS of HDPE could be either 126m tonnes in 2023-2040, 38m tonnes or as low as 7m tonnes