Here is Slide Three for today. See the other two earlier slides, detailing the New Petrochemicals Landscape
Asian Chemical Connections
Why This Year’s NPC Meeting Seems Unlikely to Rescue Chemicals Spreads and Margins
HDPE injection grade spreads would need to rise by 133% from their 2022-2025 level to return to the spreads enjoyed during the Chemicals Supercycle.
LDPE spreads would have to rise by 43%.
LLDPE spreads would need to increase by 91%.
The first of three things you should do during the rest of this downturn
THIS IS A living and breathing chart that will need to be constantly updated
Don’t hide beneath the bed sheets when you see today’s first slide
PLEASE DON’T hide your head beneath the sheets and hope that this slide will go away. What are you going to do about this? Please read on.
China’s C2 and C3 capacity in 2025 forecast to be 121% and 179% more than local demand
China’s ethylene capacity exceeding demand is forecast to increase by 6.3m tonnes in 2025 – 121% higher
China, global chemical trade flows and the need for better analysis
THERE is nothing new in this pattern in the case of some of these polymers. What’s new could be the willingness to absorb Chinese surpluses
As you plan for 2025, a reminder of the big shift in market fundamentals
IT IS the gap between earlier expectations of China’s chemicals demand growth and the new growth realities that largely explain record levels of global oversupply.
China’s recent economic stimulus barely registers on PE margins
CHINA’S RECENT economic stimulus has failed ot turn around record low PE margins
China’s 96% Q1 surge in PP exports mirrors wider export push as trade tensions build
China’s Q1 2024 exports reach 619,367 tonnes versus 315,904 tonnes in the first quarter of last year.
As China volume growth is no longer guaranteed, focus on growing value
THE THREE EVENTS described are historic, meaning that the tremendous volume growth that the petrochemicals business has seen since 1992 could be largely over.
The focus therefore needs to switch to growing value
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