By Malini Hariharan The Chinese government’s efforts to control inflation are showing no signs of yielding results. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) admitted yesterday that the government was finding it difficult to achieve its full-year inflation target of below 4%. It cited high global commodity prices as a major factor driving up local production […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The New Normal World In 2021
By John Richardson ALL of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021, which are : 1. Young and old will be focused much more […]
Towards a New Normal, not a new Supercycle
GDP growth figures in Europe and the USA have shown virtually no growth in Q2, whilst China is clearly also slowing fast. It is hard to believe that even today, some analysts are still arguing that a new Supercycle is now underway. The blog remains convinced that we are in transition to a New Normal, […]
US Fed policy may be going Back to the Future
by Paul Hodges Today’s 419 point fall on the Dow Jones Average, and $6/bbl fall in WTI crude oil prices, may not be just another example of the wild volatility that has come to seem normal in financial markets. It may also mark the end of an era. Since 1994, the US Federal Reserve has […]
Buffett says US rich should pay higher taxes
by Paul Hodges Last year, Warren Buffett paid only $7m taxes, just 17.4% of his income. Now he says rich Americans, including himself, should pay more, in order to help reduce US debt. He notes that: • In 1992, the wealthiest 400 Americans paid 29.2% tax on $16.9bn income • In 2008, they paid just […]
Wal-Mart sends a message
by Paul Hodges The blog is a great believer in the predictive power of the retail sector. Wal-Mart and Tesco were the first to spot the downturn in the summer of 2007, a year before it became obvious to everyone else. Now Wal-Mart’s problems are providing some important messages about how companies need to adjust […]
China’s bank lending nears its Minsky Moment
by Paul Hodges China’s credit bubble is one of the largest the world has ever seen. This is true not only of its total size, but also in relation to GDP. The history of credit bubbles is very clear about what happens next. Anyone who has followed the US subprime lending disaster will know the […]
High Frequency Trading dominates as markets crash
by Paul Hodges The Chemicals and the Economy blog was almost alone at the end of April, when it launched the IeC Downturn Alert. Today, its fear that we are close to a global downturn has become mainstream. As the American Chemistry Council report, “fears of another global recession are rising with several noted forecasters […]
China And Bouncing Dead Cats
By John Richardson Fifty per cent of the blog (John Richardson) is on leave for the next two weeks. Next week Paul Hodges will be posting on Asian Chemical Connections. Paul runs the ICIS Chemicals & Economy blog.Then from the week starting 22 August my fellow ACC blogger, Malini Hariharan, returns from her leave and […]
Chem Companies And The Oil Delusion
By Nigel Davis and John Richardson On the financial markets it depends when investors feel confident enough to step back into shares. An analyst on Tuesday asked who would be willing to catch a falling knife? But there are already indications of a mini-rally following the slump on global markets of the past week. Stock […]
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