The US back-to-school buying season Source of Picture: theglobeandmail.com As regular readers will remember, last Friday I linked through to this article from the New York Times on the likelihood of a disappointing back-to-school sales season in the US. I had promised some more thoughts on this article and so here goes…. ……This is a […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Dalian Swings In Favour Of The Buyers
Polyolefin producers doing RMB business in China were delighted when price increases on the Dalian Commodity Exchange linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) futures contract started leading the physical market on the way up. “We used the exchange to justify charging higher prices for real deals because in the heady days of February-early August the general trend […]
Benzene heads south – as predicted
Back from less-than-sunny Perth to discover that the prediction from my good friend and colleague Paul Hodges at International eChem has come true: Benzene has headed south because of: 1.) The rise in its pricing seems to have been out-of-kilter with what has happening downstream in styrene 2.) Traders credit might well have stampeded for […]
Excessive Confidence A Risk
Confidence along all the chemicals value chains is always a key issue because of the ability to aggressively manage inventories, according to the London-based chemicals analyst Paul Satchell. So there’s the ever-present risk of sudden and very disruptive de-stocking. The longer the current rallies in commodity prices and stock markets continue, the greater might be […]
Building A Society With A Soul
What would would the great man have thought? Source of picture: Newham Council, the UK Four of the things my dear late father taught me were: *Never vote for the British Conservative Party *Never cross a picket line *Always pursue your dreams *Keep believing in the common good of humanity in the face of all […]
Calling all CFOs: Ready To Take The Plunge?
Source of picture: oxo.typepad.com Leaving China aside for a change – where the speculative frenzy continues apace -Paul Satchell, chemicals analyst, has a four-step measure for assessing whether the US and Europe are really out of the woods. “Purchasing behaviour is strongly influenced by a customer’s confidence, and, in the current context, four distinct phases […]
China’s commodity stockpile gamble
Source of Picture: Australiannews.com In this article in the South China Morning Post (you can register for free for 14 days if you are not already a subscriber) Michael Pettis makes the argument that China is taking a big risk by stockpiling commodites such as iron ore, copper and oil. Inventory building is on the […]
Chemicals company H2 complacency?
Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog. “They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see the upturn yet they believe the worst is definitely behind us,” writes Satchell. “This blog […]
Asia anxious over the wrong kind growth
Like this for a while longer? Source of Picture: Bahnuprasad.net/blog The question, of course, is what is the right kind of growth? If you are trader of whatever kind the only growth you care about is in aset values. In other words the more bubbles the better and as long as you get out in […]
The insidious rise of the Internet….
“Bob, I think I we should give this up as I can’t get a wireless connection and I couldn’t be bothered to talk to anyone.” Source of Picture: Faculty.SMU.Edu . ……and the effect on the quality of data and analysis is one of my big concerns – particularly at a time like this when petrochemical […]
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