There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.
Asian Chemical Connections
I BELIEVE WE are heading for the biggest period of change in the global petrochemicals industry since the 1990s.
This was when globalisation took off with the formation of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), when China’s economic boom began, when the global population was more youthful and before climate change became a major threat to growth.
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
In my downside scenario for China’s HDPE demand in 2023-2040 is correct, the country’s total consumption during this period would be 134m tonnes lower than the ICIS Base Case.
YEAR-ON-YEAR chemical company financial results could we improve in Q2-Q4 2023; But this should not be seen as a return to the Old Normal.
THE EARLY DATA suggest that China’s polypropylene (PP) demand could grow by 3% in 2023. This would be in line with the base case forecast I provided in February.
A SCENARIO-BASED approach is essential to understand US PE exports in 2023, based on non-plant economic factors
China’s cumulative HDPE demand under the downside scenario would be 97m tonnes lower than our base case. in the above chart
Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to reach 218m tonnes this year from a 1990-2022 annual average of 76m tonnes.
IF China had been a typical developing economy, as the above chart illustrates, its cumulative 1990-2022 could have been 300m tonnes smaller. As history moves forward,this suggests that China’s long-term demand growth could turn negative