By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) industry planners need to factor in the following as they prepare for 2012: 1.) Oil prices are causing demand destruction in the global economy. They could go higher due to the Iranian nuclear crisis. In real dollar terms, as fellow blogger Paul Hodges has written, crude prices were the highest […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Difficult Year For Naphth-based PE
By John Richardson THE first quarter of the 2012, and very probably the rest of the year, look likely to be very difficult for Asia’s naphtha-based polyethylene (PE) producers as a result of more competition from the Middle East in the vital China market. The other big negative factor looks likely to be Chinese demand […]
Investors Predict Strong Petchems Rebound
By John Richardson POLYETHYLENE (PE) inventory levels are thought to be so low at the converter end of the business in China that a case is being made for a strong recovery in demand and pricing post-Lunar New Year. A further factor behind the anticipated rebound are forecasts of further credit easing by the Chinese […]
Resolving China’s Bad Debts
By John Richardson IS China facing a bad debt crisis as serious, or perhaps even worse, than sub-prime in the US and sovereign debt in Europe? Despite all the bland reassurances the blog keeps hearing from chemical industry executives about the tremendous growth prospects in China, this is a valid question as we try to assess […]
Wile E Coyote And China
By John Richardson THE blog, a bit like Wile E Coyote who always fails to catch Road Runner, has been amazed in recent weeks at certain people in the chemicals industry who, in public at least, fail to grasp the complexities confronting China’s economy in 2012. We wish that our experience would, at least for some […]
Conventional Thinking Revisited
By John Richardson CONVENTIONAL thinking is that when you have a strong feedstock advantage, you should go ahead and build more petrochemicals capacity on the assumption that growth will eventually be sufficient to absorb volumes. Hence, several more green-field crackers would be announced in the US based on low-cost ethane, butane and propane via shale […]
The Great Opportunities Ahead
The blog is taking a break for the festive season (we will back on Thursday next week before, of course, closing-down again over the New Year period). We would like to wish all of our readers a very happy holiday season and successful 2012. Before we take our leave, here are a few thoughts […]
Don’t Underestimate The Middle East
Source of picture: Wikimedia Commons By John Richardson THE theme of last week’s Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) conference in Dubai was “Moving Downstream, Creating Added Value and Sustainable Growth”. There is a huge effort underway in the Gulf region, as we have discussed before, to move away from only basic petrochemical […]
The Risks For US Petchems
By John Richardson THE US petrochemicals industry might be in danger of being lured into old thinking about the future direction of the global economy as a result of abundant shale gas. Despite the short-term markets gloom which we described yesterday, several industry executives and observers who we spoke to on the sidelines of […]
Placing Faith In Politicians
By John Richardson THE public mood of last week’s Gulf Petrochemicals and Chemicals Association (GPCA) conference in Dubai was resolutely optimistic. But in the corridors, the dining rooms and the coffee bars of the conference hotel, the mood was radically different. Taking, as usual, the polyethylene (PE) business as a reasonable proxy for the polymers […]
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