Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
Asian Chemical Connections
Demographics, sustainability and 1bn tonne less global polymers demand
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
China, demographics, debt and polymers demand
China’s polymers consumption in 2022 107m tonnes from a population of 1.4bn. The developing world ex-China’s consumption was at 84m tonnes from a population of 5.3bn. And the developed world consumed 82m from 1.1bn people.
The old China and HDPE, the new China and the future of demand
In my downside scenario for China’s HDPE demand in 2023-2040 is correct, the country’s total consumption during this period would be 134m tonnes lower than the ICIS Base Case.
Beware of the “head fake” of an improving China and better Q2-Q4 chemicals financial results
YEAR-ON-YEAR chemical company financial results could we improve in Q2-Q4 2023; But this should not be seen as a return to the Old Normal.
China PP demand could grow by 3% in 2023, down from the 2000-2020 average of 10%
THE EARLY DATA suggest that China’s polypropylene (PP) demand could grow by 3% in 2023. This would be in line with the base case forecast I provided in February.
US PE exports in 2023 are not inevitably going to increase
A SCENARIO-BASED approach is essential to understand US PE exports in 2023, based on non-plant economic factors
Why China’s HDPE demand could decline in 2023-2040
China’s cumulative HDPE demand under the downside scenario would be 97m tonnes lower than our base case. in the above chart
Global oversupply of petrochemicals to hit 218m tonnes in 2023 – the highest in any other year since 1990
Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to reach 218m tonnes this year from a 1990-2022 annual average of 76m tonnes.
Collective wishful thinking could be behind the global polyethylene crisis
EVEN IF CHINA’S PE demand grows at 10% in 2023, with very strong growth in other regions, this year’s global capacity would still be 22m tonnes more than demand!
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