Neither Supermajors nor Deglobalisation are inevitable. Outcomes will instead be set by many individual choices that are coordinated in the rights ways. In other words, it is within the gift of Europe to wake up from Jim Ratcliffe’s “sleepwalk”.
Asian Chemical Connections
DEMOGRAPHICS SHAPE petrochemicals demand. As we consider the future, evaluate the different challenges of the G20’s Rich but Old, Poor & Old and Poor & Young G2O groups of countries.
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
China’s polymers consumption in 2022 107m tonnes from a population of 1.4bn. The developing world ex-China’s consumption was at 84m tonnes from a population of 5.3bn. And the developed world consumed 82m from 1.1bn people.
In my downside scenario for China’s HDPE demand in 2023-2040 is correct, the country’s total consumption during this period would be 134m tonnes lower than the ICIS Base Case.
YEAR-ON-YEAR chemical company financial results could we improve in Q2-Q4 2023; But this should not be seen as a return to the Old Normal.
THE EARLY DATA suggest that China’s polypropylene (PP) demand could grow by 3% in 2023. This would be in line with the base case forecast I provided in February.
A SCENARIO-BASED approach is essential to understand US PE exports in 2023, based on non-plant economic factors