A petrochemicals world dominated by Supermajors, especially those running COTC plants, or one where greater regional cooperation (more on this in later posts) and increased protectionism allow older, smaller and less carbon efficient plants to survive.
Asian Chemical Connections
SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.
I BELIEVE WE are heading for the biggest period of change in the global petrochemicals industry since the 1990s.
This was when globalisation took off with the formation of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), when China’s economic boom began, when the global population was more youthful and before climate change became a major threat to growth.
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
Flat 2023-2050 demand growth in China and the developed world would leave the global market for nine synthetic resins 1bn tonnes smaller than the ICIS base case.
YEAR-ON-YEAR chemical company financial results could we improve in Q2-Q4 2023; But this should not be seen as a return to the Old Normal.
A SCENARIO-BASED approach is essential to understand US PE exports in 2023, based on non-plant economic factors
China’s cumulative HDPE demand under the downside scenario would be 97m tonnes lower than our base case. in the above chart