By John Richardson THE above chart, from a new Research Note released by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, exposes the fallacy that BRICS and emerging-market growth can by themselves rescue the global economy. And, as we have highlighted before on this blog, there are no long-term guarantees that China, the big driver of BRICS growth, will continue […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Risks To Japan From China Dispute
By John Richardson THE Japanese economy is at great risk from the East China Sea dispute which, if unresolved, could result in a long and bitter trade war with China, said several chemicals industry sources. Japanese electronics and auto companies could even be forced to leave China, they warned. “If the Chinese kick Japanese companies out of […]
The End Of Growth
By John Richardson OUR e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal, is a set of ideas meant to challenge conventional wisdom. Some of our ideas will need to be adapted and discarded. But our essential point is that the New Normal represents a way of thinking as much as a set of ideas, because the world has […]
Asia Top Ten Chem Companies
By John Richardson SINOPEC’s remarkable rise in the petrochemicals business continued in 2011 as it jumped two places in the ICIS Top 100 ranking, compared with 2010, to finish second overall, behind BASF. This was the result of a 28.9% rise in chemicals sales in local currency and a 34.9% increase when sales were measured […]
If You Build It They May Not Come
By John Richardson “You cannot just sit back and expect things to happen the way they have happened in the past, especially in emerging markets.” This insight from a senior Asian-based executive with a global polyethylene (PE) producer highlights the risks faced by the global industry as we transition to the New Normal. The executive […]
Reliance Goes Boldly
Source: ICIS By John Richardson Reliance Industries is going boldly (no split infinitives here) where nobody has gone before: It is to build a cracker, which could eventually produce 1.6m tonne/year of ethylene, based entirely on off-gas feedstock supplied by its 1.24m tonne/year of refinery capacity at Jamnagar, Gujarat, India. Nobody has attempted anything […]
What India Power Cuts Indicate
By John Richardson India, along with China, seems unlikely to deliver the contribution to global economic growth expected by the International Monetary Fund as late as April of this year (see above chart). In the case of India, last week’s power cuts that affected more than 600 million people, point to deep structural problems that […]
India PVC Reflects Macro Problems
By John Richardson WHAT is happening in India’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) sector reflects some of the macro-economic challenges we discussed earlier this week. An additional 8.5m tonnes of PVC pipes demand could be generated in the space of just five years if the government can get its act together on economic reform, said an Indian […]
BRICS Version 2
Mind the gap – India’s rich and poor Source of graph: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/sonalde-desai-the-great-indian-poverty-game/469351/ By John Richardson INDIA’S economy is expected to grow at its slowest pace for a decade as a result of political gridlock, tight monetary policy and the weak global economy, according to a Reuters’ poll of economists. As we discussed […]
Dictating Chemicals Demand
By John Richardson SOME commodity chemicals companies still assume that, if they build new supply, demand will always eventually catch up with supply. The risks of not building new capacities, at times of easy financing and feedstock availability, are also viewed as too great. These include deteriorating economies of scale and loss of […]
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