MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
Asian Chemical Connections
China PP exports could reach 2.6m tonnes in 2024 as markets become ever-more complex
As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
China could still become entirely petrochemicals self-sufficient despite the impact of EVs on its refineries
Petrochemical exporters to China need to ignore suggestions that lack of feedstocks will slow China’s push to complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Chemicals, sustainability and the new industrial revolution
Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
Why China’s HDPE net imports could average just 700,000 tonnes per year in 2024-2030
RIGOROUS scenario planning is essential for China’s net import flows in 2024-2030
Global demographics shape polyethylene demand yesterday, today and tomorrow
DEMOGRAPHICS SHAPE petrochemicals demand. As we consider the future, evaluate the different challenges of the G20’s Rich but Old, Poor & Old and Poor & Young G2O groups of countries.
The “National Champions” in the New Petrochemicals Landscape
SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
Why the rest of the developing world cannot follow in China’s growth footsteps
The developing world outside China cannot repeat China’s economic growth model because of climate change, ageing populations in the West and sustainability