By John Richardson THE recent history of polyethylene (PE) shows a global competitive landscape very different from that which most people expected two years ago. Two years ago, we were told that the natural price for oil was $100/bbl because of limited supply and robust demand growth. The consensus view was also that whilst costly oil meant that […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The US And China: Saudi Arabia’s Big Picture Oil Strategy
By John Richardson THE above chart should tell you a great deal of what you need to know about Saudi Aramco’s interest in buying the LyondellBasell Industries (LBI) refinery that’s located in the Houston Ship Canal in the US: Between January 2007 and October of this year, the Eagle Ford shale-oil field in Texas will have seen the efficiency […]
China And Iran: Reshaping Global Polyester Trade
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world you have to start with political, social and macroeconomic factors to help build your map of global chemicals trade flows over the next ten years. You next need to consider the old standard measures of feedstock availability, access to technology and logistics costs etc. Why are these traditional ways of […]
Saudi Aramco In A Low Oil Price World
By John Richardson NEWS of plans to list 5% of Saudi Aramco is obviously some four months old. There is thus a danger that in the welter of other later events, the long term significance of this decision ends up being overlooked. That would be a bad mistake in your scenario planning. Funding from the IPO could be […]
Oil Market Jigsaw Puzzle: Putting The Pieces Together
By John Richardson THE data has long told us that the efficiency of the US shale oil process is constantly improving. For instance, the above chart shows that in just in one shale-oil field in the US – the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana – the amount of oil each well can produce improved by 72% between […]
China And A Breakdown In Free Trade: Scenarios For Petrochemicals
By John Richardson MY blog post last Friday, on the threat to the petrochemicals industry of a retreat in global free trade, has gained a great deal of interest. This is good as this is an essential debate. Today I am therefore going to take this important debate further by considering in more detail how […]
As Global Free Trade Unwinds, Where You Have Built Becomes Critical
By John Richardson THE assumption that global free trade will continue to grow has successfully underpinned the strategy of petrochemicals producers for many years. Companies have been able to plan new capacities in just about any location secure in the knowledge that the future promised lower rather than higher trade barriers. But the world has changed. […]
China’s Gasoline Export Surge Was Entirely Predictable
By John Richardson WHEN it first became apparent earlier this year that China was aggressively expanding diesel exports, we were told not to worry as this was said to merely reflect the replacement of China’s old economy with its new economy. “It is simply a case of industrial production and investment slowing down, which has […]
Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030”: What It Means
Demand: The New Direction for Profit By John Richardson SAUDI ARABIA’S “Vision 2030”, which was released on Monday, underlines what has been clear from government statements for a long while – that the Kingdom knows it has to move beyond just exporting crude oil. It needs to break what Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has […]
The Doha Oil Meeting: Were You Ahead Of The Curve?
By John Richardson IT WAS tremendous whilst it lasted for the hedge funds and will have enabled them to make a lot of money – the ones who, of course, had the good sense to switch from long to short positions ahead of yesterday’s failed Doha meeting. Chemicals companies with a decent planning department should […]
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