By John Richardson THE OMICRON outbreak is piling further pressure on already extremely stressed supply chains as Europe struggles to cope with the highly infectious variant. As my ICIS colleague, Tom Brown, said in this ICIS Insight article, tapping into market intelligence from our pricing editors: “The supply chain pressures that have dogged the European […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Petrochemicals health warning: beware of vanishing feedstocks
By John Richardson NEW STEAM cracker projects are still being announced on the assumption that they will still be needed 20 years and more from now – well beyond full depreciation. One could argue this is reasonable given that it took some 50 years, from the introduction of the Model T to the development of […]
Benzene, the need for a new global Industrial Revolution and the big challenges that lie ahead
By John Richardson THE CHART BELOW shows that 60% of global benzene production in 2021-2040 is forecast to be made via technologies linked to refining units that also make gasoline components. The 60% includes a 33% share for catalytic reformers that make toluene, mixed xylenes (MX) and benzene, referred to collectively as reformate. In the […]
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
Global polyethylene could move from inflation to deflation by as early as Q1 2022
By John Richardson THE BALTIC DRY INDEX, one of the excellent barometers of overall economic activity, was late last week at its lowest level since June on a slowing Chinese economy, easing congestion at Chinese ports and a fall in Chinese coal imports (more on this in a moment). “The index was around 1,000 a […]
Global polyethylene supply could lengthen, becoming a buyers’ market, sooner than many people think
By John Richardson RARELY, IF EVER, have events felt so bafflingly complex in the global polyethylene (PE) business. Take as an example the chart below listing the factors that have reshaped demand since the beginning of the pandemic. Let’s go through these factors one by one, box by box. It is reasonable to assume, starting […]
After the COP26 disappointment, the “blame game” will get us nowhere
The implications of last week’s disappointing COP26 meeting in Glasgow are so complex and so numerous that is going to take more than one blog post to provide adequate coverage. In this first post, I look at the failure of COP26 to agree on a global carbon tax, in my view essential, and discuss the […]
New China HDPE import scenarios for 2021-2031 in the context of Common Prosperity
By John Richardson IF YOU THINK that forecasting the direction of China’s petrochemicals demand has become complicated enough because of Common Prosperity, the new complexities around demand pale into insignificance compared with the tangle of fresh variables shaping local capacity growth. The above slide is just my back-of-the-envelope attempt to chart some of […]
China provides major climate hope as latest IEA report underlines that it is all about the developing world
By John Richardson WHEN I worked for a UK local newspaper as a “cub” or junior reporter in the 1980s, there was a major international air crash. “Find out if there was anyone from our city on the flight,” my news editor instructed me. In my naivete, and because of lack of training, I was […]
As the drift towards a divided world continues, here are some climate change realities
Note that, as always, the views expressed here are personal. Thank you. By John Richardson Executive Summary The big Western energy companies – the International Oil Companies (IOCs) – are selling hydrocarbon assets as they strive to meet more aggressive emissions targets, some of which have been set by environmental activists. The assets are being […]
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