A petrochemicals world dominated by Supermajors, especially those running COTC plants, or one where greater regional cooperation (more on this in later posts) and increased protectionism allow older, smaller and less carbon efficient plants to survive.
Asian Chemical Connections
SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
You might think it impossible for China to reach complete self-sufficiency in PE, PP, EG and PX. History suggests otherwise.
The developing world outside China cannot repeat China’s economic growth model because of climate change, ageing populations in the West and sustainability
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.
THE US gains $296m in China HDPE sales as Asian and Middle East exporters lose $1.4bn.
We don’t have much time. We must act quickly to prevent potentially catastrophic social, political and economic damage from climate change.
Why dig more oil and gas out of the ground to make petrochemicals when the carbon cost is potentially ruinous for our climate? This might be a question increasingly asked by legislators, shareholders and the general public – rightly or wrongly.
EVEN if China’s PP demand growth is 14% this year – double our forecast – and growth in other regions is higher than we expect:
Global capacity in excess of demand would be 18m tonnes in 2023 compared with a 8m tonne/year average in 2000-2022,