By John Richardson MUCH of the focus of last week’s Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) in Singapore once again seemed to be about feedstock advantage. This included several charts ranking the competitiveness of the three major categories of ethylene producers – naphtha-based, ethane-based and coal-based – in low, medium and high future oil price scenarios. This has […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Dollar, Yen and Euro Battle: Implications For Crude Oil
By John Richardson STILL don’t buy the argument of the role of central bank money in distorting the oil prices, which I made last Friday when I argued that is more of this cheap money that is behind today’s oil price rally? Then also consider the role of currencies in all of this. Hedge funds […]
Oil Prices: You Must Answer The Supercycle Argument
By John Richardson THE continuing failure of genuine price discovery in oil markets was perfectly summarised by the the Wall Street Journal today, when it wrote: Commodity hedge funds added $4.1 billion in the first quarter, their best quarter in more than six years, eVestment said Monday. That trend is still supporting oil prices now, giving […]
Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030”: What It Means
Demand: The New Direction for Profit By John Richardson SAUDI ARABIA’S “Vision 2030”, which was released on Monday, underlines what has been clear from government statements for a long while – that the Kingdom knows it has to move beyond just exporting crude oil. It needs to break what Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has […]
Sitting On The Fence Involves Choosing Failure
By John Richardson IF you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. So the choice today is yours. If you remain on the fence, still unsure about whether the end of the Supercycle is real or not, you will be no different to those who say that the fundamentals that govern the chemicals industry haven’t changed. […]
European Polyolefins: Rebuilding The Bridges
By John Richardson SHOULD any petrochemicals value chain be a zero-sum game – a constant battle between suppliers and customers to determine who emerges as the single winner in any one month or quarter? No, absolutely not. It is possible to create win-win situations for both suppliers and customers, as has been the case […]
The Doha Oil Meeting: Were You Ahead Of The Curve?
By John Richardson IT WAS tremendous whilst it lasted for the hedge funds and will have enabled them to make a lot of money – the ones who, of course, had the good sense to switch from long to short positions ahead of yesterday’s failed Doha meeting. Chemicals companies with a decent planning department should […]
Beware Of Oil-Price Rally: Nothing To Do With Fundamentals
By John Richardson PEOPLE are once again at risk of dangerously over-exposing themselves to a further collapse in oil prices following yesterday’s increase to the highest levels since November 2015. The obvious risk is that there will be stock building up and down all the petrochemicals values chains, only for oil to once again decline […]
The End Of The Economic Supercycle: What To Do Next
By John Richardson THE above infographic explains the end of the economic Supercycle: •During the 1980s/1990s, the BabyBoomers – the largest and wealthiest generation that the world has ever seen – entered the Wealth Creator generation (those aged 25 – 54), when income and spending peak •They powered the SuperCycle. •The world’s largest economy, the […]
A Letter to Janet Yellen: Why People Expect Low Inflation
Last month, Janet Yellen, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve ( see picture on the left), admitted in a briefing to the Economic Club of New York that she was baffled by the lack of strong future inflation expectations amongst the American public. I thus thought it was worth sending an open letter to the […]
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