By John Richardson Why did the yuan devaluation take place, and what happens now and over the next few months? Here is my take on yesterday’s announcement. Although this might not be the main motive behind a move that I predicted would happen in February of this year, a cheaper yuan will provide support for […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global Polyethylene: The Bubble Continues To Burst
By John Richardson THERE are further reasons to believe that the bubble continues to burst for much of the global polyethylene (PE) industry, after what has been a misleadingly strong first half of the year. US ethylene capacity and production are on the increase as production issues lessen and as the US prepares to also […]
Sunset For Oil? You Must Be Kidding, Surely?
By John Richardson SURE, you can very easily argue that the oil industry is many, many decades away from going down the same path as the coal industry, where, in countries such as the US, it is going bankrupt. The biggest case for oil’s longevity is its role in transportation, it is altogether from […]
Asian Polypropylene: The Recent Past And Immediate Future
If you are interested in my take on Asian polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) prices and margins going forward 12 months, then contact me at this email address – john.richardson@icis.com. I can then provide you with details on how to subscribe to our Asia PE and PP Forecast Reports. By John Richardson AS with the […]
Asia Polyethylene: Explaining The Past And Future
By John Richardson TAKE a look at the above chart and ask yourself this question, “Why is it that the spreads between high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade and naphtha have been so good so far this year?” The same has therefore, of course, applied to margins for integrated PE producers. Let’s first of all look […]
Oil Prices: Why We Are Where We Are Today
By John Richardson TWO months ago, when I was delivering a training course, people responded with deep scepticism when I suggested that oil-price stability at around $65 a barrel wouldn’t be sustained during the second half of the year. And when I suggested the price would soon fall to below $50 a barrel, the […]
Re-Investing “Windfall Profits” In The Right Way
By John Richardson IF you had presented this chart to your board of directors as a margins forecast at the beginning of this year, it is quite likely that you would have been laughed out of the boardroom. Nobody expected these kind of stellar results. The thing is that this has never felt right, right […]
China And Commodities Prices: The Slow-Motion Train-Wreck
By John Richardson OIL prices are now in bear-market territory with commodities prices in general at a 13-year low, according to the latest Bloomberg Commodities index which follows 22 different commodities. Not surprisingly, therefore, the share prices of mining and other commodity-producing companies have fallen to their lowest levels since the depths of the 2008 […]
China and Iran Reshape Oil Market Thinking
By John Richardson ON Monday, I discussed how a generation of analysts have grown up never having experienced a prolonged period of weak economic growth in China. Because these analysts were unable to imagine a sustained downturn in China, they bent their theories to fit a set of facts that have consistently pointed to more […]
Oil Markets Return To Supply And Demand Realities
By John Richardson ONLY a couple of months ago a lot of people seemed confident that oil prices had settled down in the region $60-80 a barrel. At that time, though, in my 13 May seven-point guide to oil markets in H2, I flagged up some of the risks ahead. These risks remain, on top of […]
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