By John Richardson LACK OF visibility over what the New Year will bring for the global chemicals industry is a key feature of just about every conversation held with industry executives at the moment. Perfect forecasting is, of course, always impossible, but with the Eurozone in deep crisis and even China potentially facing its own bad-debt crisis, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Relief Rallies Will Not Be Sustained
By John Richardson FURTHER relief rallies in petrochemical markets that occur over the next few weeks and months will not change the overall direction. Buyers will inevitably run short of stocks down all the value chains and we thus will see some more brief flurries of price rises. Another driver of inventory rebuilding will be recoveries […]
India Needs A New Political Direction
Manmohan Singh compromises to the point where “policy has no direction” Source of picture: Wikipedia By John Richardson IN A week during which the Eurozone could quite easily break-up, the influence that individual political leaders will have on shaping our economic future has been thrown in to further stark relief. And in some countries it […]
China’s Leaders Are Boxed In
By John Richardson IT seems inevitable that petrochemical markets will respond positively to the Chinese government’s decision to reduce bank-reserve requirements by 50 basis points. There will quite likely be a relief rally in the Dalian Commodity Exchange’s futures contract in linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and a recovery in physical prices. But lost demand is […]
India growth slides to two-year low
By Malini Hariharan Economic data from India continues to disappoint. The economy grew at only 6.9% for the quarter ended September, the weakest pace in more than two years and below forecasts. Activity in the manufacturing sector slowed sharply as a result of high interest rates. The segment, which accounts for around 16% of the […]
Everywhere You Turn…..
By John Richardson It really is unrelentingly depressing, even though we hear that a few investors in chemicals stocks are clinging-on to the hope that provided everyone maintains tight production, demand will recover very strongly in Q1 of next year. We wish they were right, but sadly they are not. Everywhere you turn it looks […]
Investment Theories Don’t Need To Be True
By John Richardson DEVELOPED market plastics demand is currently 15 per cent below 2007 levels, despite a modest recovery in 2010, because of two successive years of double-digit declines in 2008 and 2009, according to a new HSBC report. Some estimates suggest that developed-market demand will return to pre-crisis levels by 2015, adds HSBC. However, the […]
Fresh US sanctions to target Iran petchems
By Malini Hariharan The US is looking to introduce fresh measures targeted at the petrochemicals industry. The specifics of the new sanctions are not yet available but the goal, says this report, is to bar foreign companies from doing business with Iran’s petrochemical industry by threatening them with being banned from U.S. markets. US companies […]
India PO demand set to decline
By Malini Hariharan The last two weeks has seen a recovery in Indian polyolefins demand led by developments in China. Prices of PE and PP have risen sharply and traders expect the uptrend to continue for the next couple of weeks as converters need to rebuild depleted inventories. But unless buying can be sustained in […]
China’s Debt Problems
By John Richardson Fellow blogger Paul Hodges made a convincing case in a post on Tuesday that China’s economic model faces some major challengs. “It seems increasingly clear that China‘s economic policy took a wrong turn 10 years ago, when it joined the World Trade Organisation,” wrote Hodges. From 2001 onwards, China transformed itself into the […]
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