Shortly after I wrote this article (see below) on the doom and gloom surrounding China polyolefins markets, hey presto, prices rallied and I was wondering whether I needed to be wiping egg off my face. But shortly after the slight rally occurred, a polyolefins trade told me it was likely to be the last margin […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Balancing economics with the environment
Recent comments by An Qiyuan, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee for Shaanxi, warned of the environment and social catastrophe facing the northwestern province of China because of a shortage of water. He was referring to the diversion of water from Shaanxi to Beijing ahead of the Olympics and hydroelectricity plants which he […]
If I had a dollar for every time………
…….I had heard a company saying it was moving up the value chain (or rather a Euro or a British pound these days), I wouldn’t be writing this blog entry while smelling the wonderful aroma of pork sausages being cooked for my tea. Brown sauce and mash as well, of course. Can Dow Chemical make […]
China growth under severe threat
I could easily be accused of ceaseless pessimism, but growth in China is moderating – regardless of what your view is of the extended article below on the impact of the bad-weather crisis. Slowing exports were already eating into estimates of GDP growth, and these estimates surely what companies can expect in chemical export volumes […]
Here we go again – 1997 is back…..
I sincerely hope not, but all the signs are there because of: *A financial crisis which nobody again saw coming, this time with global implications *What could prove to be too much spending on new equipment and capacity. This time high equity prices have paid for these investments rather than US dollar-denominated bank loans, as […]
Can India compete with China?
India is already being held back in mass manufacturing by restrictive labour practices and poor infrastructure – meaning the answer to the above question is already a resounding no in some sectors. The rise of the rupee is also a concern, as this article from The Economist highlights . The problem for India is because […]
More talk of credit tightening in China
Call me a bitter old cynic, but some of the talk in this ICIS news article about a government lending crackdown might be from a few traders taking positions. But still, it does seem as if the government is taking some measures to restrict loan growth. Earlier, it appeared unclear as to whether the restrictions […]
More Indonesian consolidation on the way?
There are strong rumours circulating that the hopelessly fragmented Indonesian petrochemical industry might undergo some more restructuring. This would follow Titan Petrochemical’s purchase of troubled polyethylene producer PT Peni, now renamed PT Titan, for a bargain price. Common ownership between sole cracker operator Chandra Asri and its numerous downstream companies would go a long way […]
The Grim Reaper readies himself
See below for an extended analysis of why everything is about to go wrong. Looking forward to picking up some bargain chemical shares over the next two years and some cheap US and UK property! As the Asian head of M&A and acqusitions for a major bank told me this morning: “Wnen everyone tells me […]
China lending restrictions to hit petchems?
China annnounced on Wednesday that it had shifted its monetary policy stance to “tight” from “prudent” in response to food-price driven inflation, soaring real-estate prices, the surge in local stock markets and continued strong growth in industrial investment. How this policy shift will be implemented remains unclear, but media reports suggest that total bank-lending growth […]
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