MORE THAN 70% of global polyethylene demand is at risk from ageing populations, climate change and geopolitics.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s petrochemicals capacity growth: A new normal of much greater uncertainty
UNDERSTANDING what was going to happen next with petrochemicals capacity additions in China used to be easy. Now we are in a world of muddle and ambiguity.
China’s ever-more sophisticated chemicals market could entirely serve itself
What’s your Plan B if China were to also become self-sufficient in specialities as well as commodities?
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
Chemicals, sustainability and the new industrial revolution
Blood bags, syringes, disposable hospital sheets, gowns and medicine packaging. Modern-day medicine, which has greatly extended the quantity and quality of our lives, would be impossible without the plastics industry.
As China volume growth is no longer guaranteed, focus on growing value
THE THREE EVENTS described are historic, meaning that the tremendous volume growth that the petrochemicals business has seen since 1992 could be largely over.
The focus therefore needs to switch to growing value
China’s demographic crisis and the impact on global PP
If we are to see a repeat of 87% in 2024-2030 (the green line in the chart) and assuming my forecast of 2% demand growth is correct, the increase in global capacity would need to average just 154,000 tonnes/year during each year between 2024 and 2030. This is versus our base case of 4.5m tonnes/year of annual increases.
Why China may struggle to maintain 4-5% GDP growth: Implications for polymers
If GDP growth were a percentage point lower than ICIS forecasts during each of the years between 2023 and 2040, and assuming the same 0.7% polymer multiple over GDP, annual consumption of the nine synthetic resins would be around 10m tonnes a year lower than our base case.
A fundamental shift in thinking on petrochemical plant closures
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
China and “pushing on a piece of string: The moderate impact of future economic stimulus
THE PHRASE “pushing on a piece of string” might best describe the logic behind calls for another round of big economic stimulus in China. Any extra money pumped into the economy could be largely saved rather than spent because of weak consumer confidence resulting from an ageing population and the end of the property bubble.