THE BIG PE exporters to China saw their sales to country decline by a further $1bn year-on-year in January-July 2023 versus January-June 2023.
Asian Chemical Connections
NINE OUT OF CHINA’S top 10 high density polyethylene (HDPE) import partners saw their sales to China fall by an estimated total of $1.8bn in January-July 2023 versus the same period last year. Meanwhile, the remaining member of the top 10, the US, saw its sales increase by $233m.
GLOBAL PE capacity in 2023-2030 may have to be 23m tonnes/year lower than the ICIS base case to bring markets back into balance
Global HDPE capacity in 2024-2030 would need to be a total of 13m tonnes/year lower than our base case to return to the 2000-2019 operating rate of 88%.
SEE ABOVE estimated LLDPE H1 2023 sales in China versus average H1 1999-2022 sales. Total estimated losses amounted to $594m among some of the big global producers.
Total estimated losses by eight of the major HDPE exporting countries in sales to China was $1.1bn in H1 2023 versus H1 2022.
CHINA’S PE demand is heading for 1% growth this year based on the H1 2023. data. Northeast Asian margins would have to recover by 3,423% to get back to normal.
CHINA’S 2024-2034 HDPE net imports could total as much as 105m tonnes or as little a 19m tonnes
As China’s overall high density PE (HDPE) imports fell to 2m tonnes in January-May 2023 from 2.5m tonnes during the same period last year, the US’s share of China’s import market jumped to 13% from 3%. Year-on-year imports from the US rose by 335% to 268,892 tonnes.
CHINA’S imports from the US surge by 220% in January-May 2023 as local production falls by 11% and as imports decline from Singapore, South Korea and Thailand.