By John Richardson NORTHEAST Asian polyethylene (PE) exports to China fell by 34% in January-August this year compared with the same period in 2010 as Middle East shipments surged by 60%, according to Global Trade Information Services – click here for a graph: ChinaPEImportsJan-Aug2011.ppt Exports from the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) region, which […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China H2 GDP Growth Only 5%
By John Richardson CHINA’S economy would only expand by 5% in H2 of this year and in the first half of 2012 on an annualised basis, said Diana Choyleva, a Hong Kong-based economist for Lombard Street Research. This was the result of credit tightening as China continued to battle inflation and a slump in export orders for manufactured goods on […]
When I’m 64
Will you still need me? Will you still feed me? The Beatles asked the right questions back in 1967, when singing ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ on their iconic Sergeant Pepper album. What would happen to the Western BabyBoomers when they became 64? Would they be about to die, as had been the case with previous generations? […]
A Dramatic Difference In Mood
By John Richardson THE big difference in the mood at the ground level of certain parts of the petrochemicals industry compared with that of company board members and investors was thrown into further stark relief earlier this week. As we discussed on Tuesday, the big polyolefins sector of this industry continues to struggle in China. Growth […]
The Fear Factor Dominates
By John Richardson EVERYWHERE you turn it is bad as fear over the future dominates the mood of polyolefin producers and buyers. Aversion to risk seems to have increased because of the concern that this could be September 2008 all over again. Hand-to-mouth buying is the norm as no purchasing manager who values his or […]
Why China PE Demand Will Not Grow In 2011
By John Richardson THE blog hears that some industry observers are persisting with the Supercycle theory for petrochemicals based on “decoupling” – i.e. emerging markets will compensate for any new recessions in the West. We find this baffling as evidence points to a lost year of growth in China. The prospects for next year seem […]
This Is Not Merely A Rough Patch
By John Richardson IT was interesting to read late last week about how certain chemicals analysts still believe that the big slump in the sector’s share prices might merely be a rough patch, possibly just a correction. In this same excellent piece from my colleague Nigel Davis, Citi US chemicals analyst PJ Jukevar talks about how […]
Glass half full or half empty?
By Malini Hariharan Despite a bleak global economic environment in the near term and uncertainty on how deep the next crisis will be chemical industry executives appear to be remarkably bullish about future prospects as is evident in KPMG’s latest industry survey. Eighty five per cent of the 142 senior chemical industry executives surveyed in […]
Demand Weakness Dominates
By John Richardson A CAREFUL reading of all the major ICIS pricing reports covering olefins, polyolefins, aromatics and their derivatives over the last few weeks reveals very few mentions of the phrase “peak demand season”. This time last year, the reports were full of references to the seasonal surge in production of finished goods in […]
There Is No Going Back
By John Richardson “IF we build polymer capacity in India the demand will come,” a very senior industry executive told the blog last year. He amplified this statement by explaining that greater availability of plastics would always stimulate strong demand growth for low-end packaging materials etc in emerging markets in general, as the poor became […]
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