Source of Picture: ChinaMonthlyReview.Org Polyester operating rates in China have started to rise on anticipation that the global economic recovery has arrived, according to Leonard DeGuzman, chemicals consultant with DeWitt & Co. Is this another example of a dangerous price bubble or further proof that we are really emerging from the woods? “The impact of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
What I Want To Know in H2 – Part Two
Garbage out, garbage in Source of Picture: The Daily Telegraph Here goes for the second part of this series. Is there anybody out there who can help? How will the ongoing availability of recycled material affect the pricing power of virgin resins? (We have the data to show that imports of scrap polyethylene (PE) and […]
Excessive Confidence A Risk
Confidence along all the chemicals value chains is always a key issue because of the ability to aggressively manage inventories, according to the London-based chemicals analyst Paul Satchell. So there’s the ever-present risk of sudden and very disruptive de-stocking. The longer the current rallies in commodity prices and stock markets continue, the greater might be […]
Reports of the death of US PP exaggerated
“Reports of my death are greatly exaggerated,” Mark Twain once famously said after his obituary was published before he had died. Similarly, the US polypropylene (PP) industry had been virtually written off late last year after a calamitous collapse in pricing resulted in inventory losses totalling a staggering $700m in November alone. But the day […]
Can what made the US sick make China well?
It seems ironic that in the crazy scramble to protect itself from the consequences of the US collapse of the US debt-growth model, China has headed down the same path. As my fellow blogger Paul Hodges pointed out last Friday, official concerns over the bubbles in equity and property markets are increasing. Zhang Jianguo, president […]
Calling all CFOs: Ready To Take The Plunge?
Source of picture: oxo.typepad.com Leaving China aside for a change – where the speculative frenzy continues apace -Paul Satchell, chemicals analyst, has a four-step measure for assessing whether the US and Europe are really out of the woods. “Purchasing behaviour is strongly influenced by a customer’s confidence, and, in the current context, four distinct phases […]
What I Want to Know in H2 – Part One
How will this one run? Source of Picture: chemicals-technology.com In the 12 years I’ve been covering the chemicals industry I don’t think I have come across a time of such exceptional market muddle. The traders love it. As a wise man said to me the other day, “When I was a trader I only cared […]
Chemicals company H2 complacency?
Chemical companies as a whole displayed “dangerously complacent” views about second-half 2009 prospects when they released their Q2 results late last week, argues chemicals analyst Paul Satchell in his blog. “They believe that demand has bottomed. Although they can’t see the upturn yet they believe the worst is definitely behind us,” writes Satchell. “This blog […]
China polyethylene inventories are high
A Mars Bar feast in store if crude hits $30/bbl again Source of Picture: Amazon.com Polyethylene (PE) inventories in China at the second and third local distributor levels are at very high levels, two reliable industry sources have told us. This has led to some confusion in the […]
Will Fiscal Rebalancing Trigger A Trade War?
Ron Kirk faces a tough balancing act Source of Picture: United States Mission – Geneva “The rebuilt American economy must be export-oriented and less consumption-oriented,” said Larry Summers, Director of the US President’s National Economic Council, earlier this month. But, as The Economist says in this article, this will be a little like turning a […]
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