By John Richardson THE possibility that China’s economy may not expand as rapidly in the future as in the past is never discussed in public by resources-company CEOs, said an Australian-based stockbroker. His comments ring true for petrochemicals, also. The blog is struggling to find a senior executive willing to discuss this possibility on the […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Polyolefins And China Real Estate
By John Richardson SOME polyolefin companies continue to present an optimistic picture of markets to investors. They point to positive factors such as renewed economic stimulus in China and a recovery in auto production in Thailand following last year’s floods. But, as we said yesterday, those involved in the day-to-day grind of trying to […]
Canton Trade Fair Disappoints
By John Richardson THE total value of export orders at the latest Canton Trade Fair, which finished this weekend, declined by 4.8% compared with the previous event in October last year. This is the first decline in the value of orders at the bi-annual fair since May 2009, when the world was in the […]
France’s Difficult Future
By John Richardson Francois Hollande, who has the won the French presidential election, talks about cutting the retirement age to 60 from 62 for people who have worked for 41 years. This is a handy slogan for an election campaign. But European pension liabilities suggest that people should be working until they are older, rather […]
MEG Continues To Struggle
By John Richardson THE above chart is a further illustration of what we believe is the wrong consensus view over China. Q1 2012 mono-ethylene glycol (MEG) imports surged by 30% compared with the same period last year, as traders bet on a sharp rebound in China’s economy. They believed all the talk of more local […]
North America Manufacturing Rebound
By John Richardson THIS fascinating slide from Accenture, in a new study that the consultancy is about to release on the rebound in North American manufacturing competitiveness, quantifies the steep rise in relative labour costs in China between 2001 and 2011. And this process is likely to accelerate as China attempts to narrow the […]
China PE Demand Down 4 Percent
By John Richardson CHEMICALS analysts, and some senior company executives, are telling us that growth in China will bounce back in the second half of 2012. To give these forecasts some historical context, the recovery was supposed to happen in January, then February, then March, then April and now at some point in the […]
A Road Map For Success
The new chapter of our free ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ ebook sets out a road map to success for companies in the New Normal. It also identifies 5 key areas where major change is already underway. Demand-driven. Markets have essentially been supply-driven in recent decades, with growth being forecast on the basis of […]
Dow Sees China Growth Acceleration
By John Richardson DOW Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris said in an earnings call, following the release of the company’s Q1 results: “China is stabilising and growth is likely to accelerate later this year as their government keeps shifting its policies to inspire and incentivise domestic growth.” An industry observer agreed, and added: “I’m still sticking […]
The China Shale Gas Risk
By John Richardson FIVE years ago everybody had written-off the US petrochemicals industry, but now the industry is incredibly gung-ho, thanks to shale gas – even if the issue of demand is somewhat more problematic. In five years time, might the world once again look a very different place as a result of shale gas […]
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