UNTIL I FULLY understood the potential supply and industry economics implications of converting a lot more oil into petrochemicals, what’s happening to demand and the extent of China’s future self-sufficiency, I used to present charts such as the one above to clients with the proviso: “The good news is that this chart will almost certainly be wrong”. NOW I AM NOT SO SURE
Asian Chemical Connections
The scale of plans to turn oil into petrochemicals may radically reshape this industry
A petrochemicals world dominated by Supermajors, especially those running COTC plants, or one where greater regional cooperation (more on this in later posts) and increased protectionism allow older, smaller and less carbon efficient plants to survive.
The “National Champions” in the New Petrochemicals Landscape
SHORT-TERM tactics should involve maximising returns within regions along with a greater focus on exports anywhere in the world
China self-sufficiency drive expected to accelerate in PE, PP, EG and PX
You might think it impossible for China to reach complete self-sufficiency in PE, PP, EG and PX. History suggests otherwise.
Why the rest of the developing world cannot follow in China’s growth footsteps
The developing world outside China cannot repeat China’s economic growth model because of climate change, ageing populations in the West and sustainability
A fundamental shift in thinking on petrochemical plant closures
Environmental, social and political factors – along with integration into upstream petrochemicals – have held back plant closures. Now, things seems very different.
Details of how Saudi Aramco COTC and other advantaged feedstock projects could redraw the petrochemicals map
There is a big new wave of lower-carbon and very advantaged cracker projects on the way, including Saudi Aramco’s crude-oil-to-chemicals investments.
The China and global PP downturns mean CEOs should be asked some tough questions
HOW many PP company CEOs saw this coming, and what their plan now?
Overstocking may have boosted China PE demand as the US continues to win while others lose
THE US gains $296m in China HDPE sales as Asian and Middle East exporters lose $1.4bn.
Winners and losers as demographics, debt, sustainability, geopolitics and crude-to-chemicals rewrite the rules of success
I BELIEVE WE are heading for the biggest period of change in the global petrochemicals industry since the 1990s.
This was when globalisation took off with the formation of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), when China’s economic boom began, when the global population was more youthful and before climate change became a major threat to growth.
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