By John Richardson A DEBATE is taking place over whether the price of propylene will decline to its traditional discount versus ethylene. In Europe, propylene prices went above ethylene for the first time ever during the second quarter of 2010. Since 2001, the price differential of ethylene over propylene had steadily eroded until it reversed […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Downside Continues To Surprise
By John Richardson THE statistics speak for themselves. For example: *The full HSBC August manufacturing index for China, which was released last Friday, showed that manufacturing input costs were rising at their fastest rate for four months, suggesting that the battle against inflation is a long way from being won. Although the final HSBC […]
China H2 GDP Growth Only 5%
By John Richardson CHINA’S economy would only expand by 5% in H2 of this year and in the first half of 2012 on an annualised basis, said Diana Choyleva, a Hong Kong-based economist for Lombard Street Research. This was the result of credit tightening as China continued to battle inflation and a slump in export orders for manufactured goods on […]
A Dramatic Difference In Mood
By John Richardson THE big difference in the mood at the ground level of certain parts of the petrochemicals industry compared with that of company board members and investors was thrown into further stark relief earlier this week. As we discussed on Tuesday, the big polyolefins sector of this industry continues to struggle in China. Growth […]
Speculation Drives China Methanol
By Malini Hariharan Methanol continues to be an exception to the general weakness seen in Asian petrochemical markets. Spot prices have crossed $410/tonne in the important China market and could remain firm for the rest of the year. Prices have risen by 11% in the last month. Chinese speculators have been driving up prices as […]
The Fear Factor Dominates
By John Richardson EVERYWHERE you turn it is bad as fear over the future dominates the mood of polyolefin producers and buyers. Aversion to risk seems to have increased because of the concern that this could be September 2008 all over again. Hand-to-mouth buying is the norm as no purchasing manager who values his or […]
Middle East Still Confident For Now
By John Richardson Confidence among Middle Eastern petrochemical producers remains high because they obviously now that as long as oil prices do not collapse they will continue to make excellent money, said a chemicals analyst. The blog believes that there is a very strong chance that crude will collapse to as little as $25 a […]
Why China PE Demand Will Not Grow In 2011
By John Richardson THE blog hears that some industry observers are persisting with the Supercycle theory for petrochemicals based on “decoupling” – i.e. emerging markets will compensate for any new recessions in the West. We find this baffling as evidence points to a lost year of growth in China. The prospects for next year seem […]
Limited Help For China’s SMEs
By John Richardson THE credit crisis that is limiting chemicals and polymer trade in China is continuing, even though local initiatives have been launched to help small and medium-sized enterprise (SMEs) with the central government indicating that more help could be on the way. As we have discussed before on the blog, the trade finance crisis […]
China’s Long-term Shift In Inflation
By John Richardson THE odd chemicals trader who has gone long might well seek to talk-up his or her markets by claiming that the slowdown in China’s inflation rate is great news. But nobody interested in anything beyond the sale of the next cargo should read anything too-positive into the decline in consumer inflation in August […]
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