By John Richardson BANK lending is once again surging in China as politicians try to shore up their support ahead of the leadership transition. “The central government has approved up to 7 trillion yuan ($1.2bn) for infrastructure investments since May to spur growth,” wrote the China Daily. This represents 15% of GDP. Real-estate loans in […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Reformer Sidelined
By John Richardson AN assumption is that economic reformers will win control of China’s Politburo after the once-in-a-decade leadership transition is out of the way (China’s new set of leaders are set to be announced during the 18th Party Congress, which begins on 8 November). The blog believes that this assumption needs to be rigorously challenged, […]
Morgan Stanley Turns Bearish
By John Richardson AN interesting new report from Morgan Stanley underlines what we have been hearing about Chinese chemicals demand. The investment bank writes: “We returned to China and offer a revised message versus our trip last year. Instead of a ‘pause” in growth’, we now see a structural slowdown. China is in the midst […]
China PE Demand Weakness Continues
By John Richardson LET’S put this into context: China’s polyethylene (PE) demand grew by 53 percent in 2008-2010. Growth during the first seven months of this year was just 1.7 percent over Januuary-July 2011, according to Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). And when compared with the same seven months in 2010 growth was flat, as the […]
Recovery Always 3-6 Months Away
By John Richardson THE recovery always seems to be three to six months away. Thus, as hope fades for a Q4 economic rebound in China, a marketing and sales executive with a major European speciality chemicals player told the blog earlier this week: “Everything will be fine in the New Year once China’s new leaders […]
China Coal-to-Olefins Strong Economics
By John Richardson THE economics of China’s coal-based olefins industry are favourable when measured on a cash cost basis in a high oil-price environment, as the slide above from the Singapore-based consultancy Methanol Market Services Asia (MMSA) illustrates. But even when oil prices decline, which occurred in May this year, swinging cash costs back in […]
Asian LDPE Margins Reach New Low
LDPE margins in 2012 By John Richardson NORTHEAST Asian integrated low-density polyethylene (LDPE) margins keep plunging new depths. The margins were at their most negative since ICIS records began in 2000, according to the ICIS Asian PE Margin Report for the week ending 10 August. And the report for the week ending 17 August said that they had fallen even […]
Dysfunctional Oil Markets
By John Richardson “HOW do a I tell my customers that polyethylene (PE) price rises are justified by more expensive naphtha, when the market is so weak?” asked an Asia-based sales and marketing executive with a major producer earlier this month. A second executive with another producer, who has responsibility for the China market, expressed […]
PVC’s Unsustainable China Growth
By John Richardson POLYMER markets continue to tell us that China’s 2009-2010 economic stimulus programme delivered unsustainable demand growth. China’s demand for polyvinyl chloride (PVC) surged from 10.9m tonnes in 2009 to 13.2m tonnes in 2010, according to Global Trade Information Services (GTIS). Demand then reached 14.1m tonnes in 2011. The slowdown in growth reflected government […]
China Coal-to-Olefins Ambitions
By John Richardson SOME 10-15m tonne/year of coal-to-olefins (CTO) capacity in China is being considered, has already received approval or is in the planning stage, according to a report by Woori. “Major coal companies, petrochemical companies and foreign petrochemical players are all known to be planning CTO plant construction in China’s north western regions,” says the South […]
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