In January-March 2022, the ICIS China production estimates plus the net import data from the China Customs department suggested that China’s full-year polypropylene (PP) demand growth would have been be 4%. But the January-April data for this year suggest almost zero growth over last year.
Asian Chemical Connections
Global chemicals face negative growth on inflation, more logistics problems and a deep China downturn
SUPPLY-CHAIN problems continue to disrupt the global chemicals and polymer industries more than two years since the pandemic began.
Right now, the centre of attention of supply-chain anxiety is China.
China polyethylene: latest scenarios for 2022 demand and net imports
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2022 could fall by 3% over last year. Net imports may be as much as 3.9m tonnes lower
China’s 2022 PE growth may be minus 3% with net imports declining by 29%
I AM JUST about clinging to a base case of positive China polyethylene (PE) demand growth in 2022 because China has a great track record of turning its economy around after short periods of weaker growth. But this time could be different.
Major China PE and PP rate cuts fail to halt slide in spreads to historic lows
Reductions in production seem to have been forced by the logistics and demand challenges caused by Zero-COVID.
China polyolefins: several years of history pass in just one week
LAST WEEK I challenged whether the longstanding “put option” for petrochemicals companies and investors would still apply to China 2022.
The put option rests on the well-proven notion that the worst things get in the short term, the better the immediate outlook because Beijing always rides to the rescue with big economic stimulus.
The challenge I posed to the put option was that China might only tinker around the edges of its Common Prosperity economic reforms.
China’s LLDPE market: final review for 2021 and further outlook for this year
China’s LLDPE demand grew by just 1% last year, below market expectations, with further 2022 downward pressure likely on Common Prosperity and Zero COVID
With Common Prosperity set to dominate 2022, here is some essential history
By John Richardson THERE IS ONLY one slight problem with the argument that developing world demand is behind the boom in petrochemicals demand over the last 20 years: the data. Sorry to begin the year on a rather sarcastic note, but this is unfortunately a drum I feel I need to keep banging to support […]
China 2021 polyethylene demand could be 1.9m tonnes lower than last year
By John Richardson WE NOW HAVE enough data to make some firm conclusions about what the Chinese polyethylene (PE) market will have looked like in 2021. We can also make some early estimates about the shape of the market in 2022. The slide below details what the ICIS apparent demand data for January-October 2021 (our […]
Global polypropylene could also move from inflation to deflation in Q1 next year
By John Richardson WE ALL NEED TO ASK ourselves whether the global patterns in polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) pricing and margins that we have seen over the last year represent a long-term divergence in global markets or something temporary. As discussed on Monday, when I examined linear low-density PE (LLDPE) market (and the same […]
Jump to page: