By John Richardson WHEN the economic, social and political history of 2008-2014 ends up being written, there are two groups of people who are going to end up bearing a lot of the blame for the new global financial crisis. It is the people who run the Fed and those who ran China’s government until […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Australia At An Economic Crossroads
By John Richardson THERE is no such thing as level playing field when it comes to the chemicals industry and, for that matter, probably any other industry. China has long-subsidised many of its industries through soft loans for new projects, cheap land, cheap electricity and tax breaks in special economic zones. Some projects in Southeast […]
China’s 2014 GDP Growth Target
By John Richardson THE blog is scratching its head this morning as it tries to work out how China can have it both ways. Yesterday, Li Keqiang, China’s Premier, announced that the country’s 2014 GDP growth target would be 7.5%, whilst he also pledged to press ahead with economic reforms. But how can economic reforms […]
Demand Weakness Dominates
By John Richardson A CAREFUL reading of all the major ICIS pricing reports covering olefins, polyolefins, aromatics and their derivatives over the last few weeks reveals very few mentions of the phrase “peak demand season”. This time last year, the reports were full of references to the seasonal surge in production of finished goods in […]
The New Normal World In 2021
By John Richardson ALL of us would love to be able to see into the future. Chapter 4 of our new eBook, ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’, does just this. It offers 10 predictions about how the world will look in 2021, which are : 1. Young and old will be focused much more […]
The Chemicals Party Is Over
By John Richardson IT has been a fantastic party. Nobody expected that the drinks would last for so long, thanks to Wen Jiabao and Ben Bernanke working overtime to man the 24/7 off-licence (it is called “liquor store” in the States and a “bottle shop” in Australia). But now the market has clearly reached the top with […]
Fingers Crossed For No Double-Dip Recession
The Risk Of Exhausted Optimism Source of picture: http://www.thedigeratilife.com/blog/double-dip-recession/ By John Richardson Global polyethylene (PE) oversupply will be “challenging but manageable” over the next year-and-a-half provided there is no double-dip economic downturn, said Joe Duffy, consultant with DeWitt & Co. “My analysis suggests that if economic growth continues into 2011 at the […]
China Chem Imports May Fall On Yuan Expectation
As cheap as chips Source of picture: europa.eu By John Richardson THE decline in the Euro has resulted in investors downgrading their expectations of a Yuan appreciation taking place over the next few months. Last week, Yuan foward contracts were factoring in a zero chance of appreciation over the next three months after […]
Western Chems: Exporting Into More Domestic Trouble?
China’s migrant workers – a risky game… Source of picture: China Daily By John Richardson THIS very disturbing Op-Ed piece by Paul Krugman in the New York Times argues that the US needs to impose a 25% tariff on Chinese imports in response to the value of the Yuan being held at […]
China’s Growth In 2010: Two Theories
More buying of junk in H1 next year that nobody really needs? Source: www.blogcleveland.com By John Richardson TWO theories about growth in China next year revolve around either an appreciation or devaluation of the Yuan. The appreciation theory is far more widespread as it assumes no global double-dip economic recession. It’s assumed that […]
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