By John Richardson THE above chart, from a new Research Note released by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, exposes the fallacy that BRICS and emerging-market growth can by themselves rescue the global economy. And, as we have highlighted before on this blog, there are no long-term guarantees that China, the big driver of BRICS growth, will continue […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The End Of Growth
By John Richardson OUR e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal, is a set of ideas meant to challenge conventional wisdom. Some of our ideas will need to be adapted and discarded. But our essential point is that the New Normal represents a way of thinking as much as a set of ideas, because the world has […]
Foxconn And China Demographics
Source: http://www.engadget.com/2012/09/23/foxconn-taiyuan-riot/ By John Richardson THE riots and a strike at Foxconn factories in China point to demographic changes that have major implications for the country’s economy. China’s one-child policy means that it can no longer depend on a constant flow of compliant workers from the countryside prepared to accept exhausting and monotonous working […]
China And Demographics
OUR last four blog posts have focused on some of the big challenges confronting China’s economy over the next 12-18 months. Today we again switch our focus to how major changes in demographics could adversely impact longer-term growth prospects. By John Richardson CONTINUING high rates of urbanisation are constantly cited by chemical industry executives […]
China’s Demographic Crisis
Chinese govt poster promoting the one-child policy By John Richardson IF all you can remember is strong emerging markets growth, then it is easy to be misled into only building into your scenarios the notion that China and India are merely pausing for economic breath. Conventional wisdom remains that this is, decidedly, the […]
A Call To Action
We are about to set out on a great journey as the world transitions to the New Normal. The reason for the journey is that the world economy has changed irrevocably as a result of the financial crisis and the demand changes created by the ageing of the Western BabyBoomers. There is no going back. […]
France’s Difficult Future
By John Richardson Francois Hollande, who has the won the French presidential election, talks about cutting the retirement age to 60 from 62 for people who have worked for 41 years. This is a handy slogan for an election campaign. But European pension liabilities suggest that people should be working until they are older, rather […]
A Road Map For Success
The new chapter of our free ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ ebook sets out a road map to success for companies in the New Normal. It also identifies 5 key areas where major change is already underway. Demand-driven. Markets have essentially been supply-driven in recent decades, with growth being forecast on the basis of […]
New Policies Needed To Restore Growth
Politicians seem to be floundering as they seek to restore growth to the Western economy. Their prescriptions swing between austerity and economic stimulus as they argue over what has gone wrong. But in chapter 10 of our Boom, Gloom & The New Normal e-book we argue that they are on the wrong track. They are […]
US Petchems: The Bigger Picture
By John Richardson Access to cheap feedstock, access to cheap feedstock and access to cheap feedstock might seem like the three most-important elements to any petrochemicals strategy. Thus, for many in the US, adding capacity based on abundant and therefore low-cost ethane, thanks to the shale-gas revolution, adds up. US ethylene capacity could be increased by […]
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