By John Richardson IN normal global economic, social and geopolitical circumstances, Narendra Modi’s decision to overnight remove 86% of the cash from the Indian economy would have been a major risk. But these are not the normal global circumstances that most of us are familiar with. They are instead very much like the 1930s. This is why India could end […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Success In 2017: Move Quickly from Denial To Acceptance
By John Richardson COUNTING the deckchairs on the deck of the Titanic as it heads towards the iceberg is the exact equivalent of assuming that 2017 oil prices will almost be entirely determined by whether or not OPEC and non-OPEC comply with their production cutbacks. We might of course steer around the iceberg, but, as […]
The Future Isn’t What The Dow Jones Is Telling Us
By John Richardson WHAT for you is the most important chart, the one on the left or the one on the right? If you are a chemicals producer rather than stockmarket investor, I would suggest it is the one on the right. The chart on the left shows the rise of the Dow Jones Industrial […]
Polyethylene Pricing, Profits In 2017: Three Scenarios
By John Richardson WE are in entirely uncharted territory because the West looks as if it is about to abandon the economic and geopolitical policy consensus that has been in place since the Second World War. There is, for example, the collateral damage that might well result from the president-elect’s domestic stimulus policies – a […]
Bricklaying In Australia And Oil Prices: Important Similarities
By John Richardson THE bricklayer came around to my house three years ago, quickly surveyed the extent of the job, drew a sharp breath, and said, “It’s going to cost you at least Aus$4,000.” And that was after a four-week wait to get a quote. How times have changed. Last week, the same bricklayer popped around […]
OPEC Cutbacks: The Case Against Any Major Impact
By John Richardson OPEC’s decision to cut production could well turn out to have no significant impact on the direction of oil markets in 2017 and beyond. I believe that everything still points to weaker, rather than stronger, crude prices, barring a major geopolitical crisis. We are very likely heading for is a global recession in […]
Oil Prices Over The Next Six Months: What You Need To Know
By John Richardson SURPRISED by the latest decline in crude prices following the US Energy Administration’s (EIA) report that more oil went in to storage last week than in any other week in 34 years? You really shouldn’t be if you have taken note of another extraordinary data set from the EIA that shows the […]
China: 2017-2020 Scenarios For Polypropylene Growth
By John Richardson IS this the moment when Xi Jinping decides to take most of the pain of economic reforms? A recent article in Caixin, the Chinese business and finance magazine, suggests that the moment could have arrived: This week, the Ministry of Finance and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a new policy requiring […]
Why China Cannot Get Away With Its Latest Debt Crisis
By John Richardson CHINA has had debt crises before that have been very easily resolved. In the late 1990s, for instance, as business and economics professor, Christopher Balding, points out, China’s government created state-owned asset management companies to clean-up the balance sheets of banks. These management companies bought debt off troubled banks and held it […]
Oil Prices: When The Facts Don’t Matter
By John Richardson HERE are first of all the facts from the latest International Energy Agency (IEA) report: OPEC production hit a record high in September of 33.64m bbl/day. Iraq produced more oil than ever, while Libya reopened oil ports. Further boosting global supply levels is the fact that production in non-OPEC member Russia hit […]
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