As recently as 2020, China’s PP exports for the whole year were just 424,746 tonnes. Between 2021 and 2023 they ranged between 1.3m to 1.4m tonnes. If the January-May 2024 export momentum were to continue for the rest of this year, full-year 2024 exports would reach 2.6m tonnes, double last year’s level.
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s Third Plenum later this month: Implications for petchem markets
How will we know if the Third Plenum has returned China to its old growth trajectory? If China CFR HDPE price spreads over CFR Japan naphtha costs rebound by 164%, LDPE spreads increase by 62% and LLDPE spreads rise by 100%.
China’s ever-more sophisticated chemicals market could entirely serve itself
What’s your Plan B if China were to also become self-sufficient in specialities as well as commodities?
China could still become entirely petrochemicals self-sufficient despite the impact of EVs on its refineries
Petrochemical exporters to China need to ignore suggestions that lack of feedstocks will slow China’s push to complete petrochemicals self-sufficiency
China’s economic challenges continue to be made clear by PP spreads
Until average PP spreads recover by 149% from where they were up until 9 June, there will have been no return to the great markets we saw during the Supercycle. Meanwhile, too capacity will be chasing too little demand.
South Korea petrochemicals: Challenges and opportunities
SOUTH KOREA needs to transform its petrochemicals and polymers exports through reduced exposure to China and improved sustainability
A Personal View of the New Petrochemicals World
What follows is, as always on the blog, a personal view of how I see the petrochemicals world developing. There are no right answers, and the debate is the thing. That’s how we move forward together.
China’s 96% Q1 surge in PP exports mirrors wider export push as trade tensions build
China’s Q1 2024 exports reach 619,367 tonnes versus 315,904 tonnes in the first quarter of last year.
China may see either annual average PP net imports of 4.9m tonnes or net exports of 7.2m tonnes in 2024-2030
Relatively minor changes in PP demand growth and operating rate assumptions have big effects on forecasts for China’s trade flows.
Global PE demand in 2024 could have been 74m tonnes lower if incomes and population drove the market
If population and incomes drove growth, global PE demand could have been just 52m tonne in 2024 versus the ICIS forecast of 126m tonnes. The China market could have been just 10m tonnes versus 43m tonnes; the Developing World ex-China 13m tonnes versus 44m tonnes and the Developed World 29m tonnes versus 38m tonnes.
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