By John Richardson REPORTS of soaring apparent polyethylene (PE) demand (imports plus domestic production) in China continue as the search also persists for an explanation, given the country’s weak macro-economic environment. Last week we wrote of a 13% increase in demand in January-June of this year compared with the same months in 2011, based on data […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Complexities Of Benzene
By John Richardson SOMETIMES petrochemicals markets defy reality, on the occasions when pricing moves out-of-synchronicity with the underlying nature of demand. This is the case with benzene today (see the above pricing chart) as my ICIS colleague Truong Mellor describes, in this excellent Insight article. He says that: *European Benzene pricing has been bullish, as […]
Please Be Careful Out There
By John Richardson Quite often, a chart is worth many thousands of words. The above chart, from Bloomberg, shows the divergence between the soaring S&P 500 index and US macro-economic indicators. The theory is that soaring equity values will be the tide that lifts all boats. Even America’s hard-pressed middle classes will benefit, not just […]
Oil Prices Fall, As We Warned
Source: Daily Forex By John Richardson WE warned on 4 April that real economics threatened a sharp correction in crude-oil prices and it now appears to be happening. “New York’s main contract, West Texas Intermediate for May delivery, closed at $US88.71 a barrel on Monday [15 April], down a hefty $US2.58 from Friday,” wrote The […]
The Real Economies Set To Dominate Q2
By John Richardson Sometimes a picture is worth many thousands of words. The above chart, supplied by one of the blog’s resources analyst contacts in Perth, Western Australia, neatly illustrates the dangerous divergence between real ecoomies and financial markets. As the Nikkei 225 has surged, Arabian Gulf very large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates to […]
US has “23 Years” Of Gas Reserves
By John Richardson Amidst all the continued excitement about abundant supplies of ethane in the US, some sceptics are still warning that all may not as it seems during petrochemicals company investor presentations. “The US does not have 100 years of natural gas supply,” said the author of this post on the Oil Drum blog. […]
Innovation: No More Time Left To Lose
Source of picture: http://whyfiles.org/ By John Richardson MY colleague Nigel Davis has written an excellent Insight article which highlights how some chemicals companies are seeking to respond to changing patterns. As we have discussed before, Bayer Material Science is adapting its portfolio of products in response to the megatrends – demographics, energy conservation, […]
China’s Numbers Game
By John Richardson YET more problems with Chinese economic statistics have emerged, casting doubt over the idea that an economic hard landing was avoided in 2012 – and that there was a strong rebound in the fourth quarter. “Official data on China’s gross domestic product show the slowdown in growth in the last two years […]
US Housing Recovery 74% Below The Peak
By John Richardson “People are tired of being depressed and looking for any little source of light to feel positive. Even companies are resorting to this and forecasting margin and earnings recovery though there is no strong data to show this is going to happen,” said a chemicals industry source. Take the US housing market […]
HSBC: China 2013 Polyethylene Market Has Peaked
By John Richardson A NEW report from HSBC backs up our concerns that the post-Chinese New Year polyethylene (PE) will be weaker than in December-January. The bank is with us in thinking that the stronger markets over the last two months have been driven by: *Lagging indicators such as strong export and import data and […]
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