By John Richardson ALL of yesterday’s excitement about the US overtaking Saudi Arabia and Russia by 2017 to become the world’s biggest oil producer – and exceeding Russia to become the world’s biggest gas producer by 2015 – needs to be taken with a very large pinch of salt. The release of the International Energy […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Suspension Has Gone
By John Richardson WHAT a week it’s been when, of course, politics has trumped everything else and has challenged the view of those who believe that demand will take care of itself. Demand did take care of itself during the Supercycle, but that is now over for good. China no longer has the comfort blanket of […]
Tackling The SOEs
“The state advances as the private sector retreats…” The table below shows the size of China state-owned enterprises versus some other corporate giants. Source of table: The Economist. ICBC is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. By John Richardson In the second of our series of blog posts ahead of this week’s 18th […]
The US Shale Gas Boom Will End
Don’t follow the herd… By John Richardson ISN’T it amazing how we keep getting caught out by the unexpected, from the global financial crisis to China is entering a period of much-lower growth? No, not really. As long as we keep being driven by the short attention-span of financial markets and the demands of quarterly […]
Recovery? What Recovery?
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene (PE), which is a measure of local production plus imports, rose by 4% in January-September this year compared with the same periods in 2010 and 2011, according to Global Trade Information Services (see the above chart). This is an improvement on the 1% growth seen in the January-August […]
Planning For New Growth Patterns
By John Richardson “Have you noticed that your parents spend less money than you do?” asks Merryn Somerset Webb in this Financial Times article. She agrees with us that the answer is, of course, “Yes”. This very neatly brings the issue down to a personal level, one that all of us can relate to, and […]
The BRICS Fallacy
By John Richardson THE above chart, from a new Research Note released by fellow blogger Paul Hodges, exposes the fallacy that BRICS and emerging-market growth can by themselves rescue the global economy. And, as we have highlighted before on this blog, there are no long-term guarantees that China, the big driver of BRICS growth, will continue […]
World Heading For L-Shaped Recovery
Mr Bernanke, please take note By John Richardson The recovery is always six months away and so while most people have written-off the first half of next year, the hope is that by H2 everything will be back to normal. But as fellow blogger Paul Hodges points out in this video, which he further underlines […]
China GDP Growth 4-5% in 2013-2020
Canton Trade Fair. Source of picture: http://www.vatti-china.com/News/83.htm By John Richardson IT would be nice to believe that the improved mood at this week’s Canton Trade Fair represents a long-term turnaround in China’s economic direction. This reflects a 9.9% increase in overall exports in September, much higher than the 5.5% median estimate in a Bloomberg […]
The End Of Growth
By John Richardson OUR e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal, is a set of ideas meant to challenge conventional wisdom. Some of our ideas will need to be adapted and discarded. But our essential point is that the New Normal represents a way of thinking as much as a set of ideas, because the world has […]
Jump to page: