WTI continues its journey towards a possible $35/bbl by Q4 of this year on rising US shale-oil production and a slight slowdown in the Chinese economy with big implications for global economic growth. And $25/bbl or lower crude in 2018 seems perfectly possible on these same dynamics. By John Richardson THE US shale oil industry was never going to […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why Oil Prices Could Be At $35/bbl Or Lower By Q4
Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC may regret their decison to cut production, as this has led to a resurgence in US shale-oil production – and a further wave of innovation in shale technologies. Combine this with a slowdown in the Chinese economy and oil prices could be at $35/bbl or less by Q4 […]
The US And China: Saudi Arabia’s Big Picture Oil Strategy
By John Richardson THE above chart should tell you a great deal of what you need to know about Saudi Aramco’s interest in buying the LyondellBasell Industries (LBI) refinery that’s located in the Houston Ship Canal in the US: Between January 2007 and October of this year, the Eagle Ford shale-oil field in Texas will have seen the efficiency […]
Oil Analysts Should Have Taken “O Level” History In The 1970s
By John Richardson WHEN Abraham Darby discovered a way of using coke to smelt iron ore in place of increasingly expensive wood in 1709 his technology didn’t stand still. Armies of engineers sought ways of making his process better, which led to the pivotal introduction in 1828 of “hot blast” technology. The “hot blast” breakthrough […]
US Oil, Gas, Chemicals Drowning In Excess Of Credit
By John Richardson THE US oil, gas and petrochemicals sectors are drowning in an excess of credit that has distorted rational analysis of long-term supply and demand fundamentals. So, just as is the case with China manufacturing in general, these misguided investments are in danger of contributing to a prolonged period of global deflation. Let’s […]
Oil Prices, The Chase For Yield And Another Roll Of The Dice
By John Richardson GILLIAN Tett, the outstanding financial journalist, talked about “silo thinking” in her book – Fool’s Gold – that detailed the root causes of the Global Financial Crisis. By this she meant how too many people only had deep knowledge of one particular aspect of how financial markets were supposed to work – […]
Recent History Of Oil Suggests Production Will Stay High
By John Richardson THERE is a much-broader acceptance today of the recent history of oil markets, which in summary was as follows: Oil and other commodities became a great way to make money for speculators at the height of the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) programme. This was made easy because the financial system was awash […]
Stand Back And Think: Can This Oil-Price Rally Really Last?
By John Richardson THE talk in oil markets right now is largely about falling US rig counts and how this has resulted in tighter supply. But it is very important to note that this focus on the rig count is a recent phenomenon. “People have only started paying attention to the oil rig count in […]
Crude Oil Price Risks Escalate
By John Richardson FINANCIAL speculators began to play an increasing role in crude-oil markets following liberalisation of financial trading rules, signed into law by Bill Clinton in 2000, as we argued in chapter 3 of our e-book, Boom Gloom & The New Normal. The disconnect between real supply and demand for crude and the influence […]
“You Can’t Turn Back The Demographic Tide”
By John Richardson Our argument ument that demographics drive demand is gaining greater traction. Demographic challenges apply both to developed markets, where populations are rapidly ageing, and to emerging markets such as China, which confronts ithe consequences of its disastrous one-child policy. The slide above shows rising life expectancy – just one of the […]
Jump to page: