Oil markets are warning of rising economic and political risk. Prudent companies and investors will be preparing for difficult times ahead, whilst still hoping for the best.
Chemicals and the Economy
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” VIadimir Lenin
We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
6 ‘Rules for Success’ as tariff wars and Europe’s Clean Industrial Deal begin
The Rules for doing business have to change. As NATO’s leader, Mark Rutte, has warned, Europe needs to “Raise defense spending or start learning Russian”
US natural gas prices surge as La Niña replaces El Niño
Commodity prices tend to go from boom to bust, and back again. The reason is that it takes years to build new capacity. Yet market conditions can change in months. So it would be no surprise at all if US natural gas markets now move back into another boom, and help to set off another round of inflation.
China’s property crash has already destroyed $18tn of household wealth – where next?
Living longer should be a great opportunity for all of us. Today’s problem is that policymakers around the world have refused to accept that demographics are destiny. All of us now have to face the challenge of unwinding the mess they have made.
Smartphone sales confirm how ‘value for money’ is starting to drive consumer demand
The smartphone market highlights how consumers are refocusing on ‘value for money’. New product sales are slowing in response to the cost-of-living crisis. More people are now happy buying a used model.
And global brands no longer have the same attraction if the local brand works as well, and is cheaper.
Trump launches trade war with US’s top 3 trade partners; says Europe & key business sectors are next
“The Dumbest Trade War in History. Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.” Wall Street Journal editorial
China risks entering a debt trap as its housing bubble continues to deflate
Deflation means the real value of debt increases. This is the opposite of what happens with inflation, when its real value reduces. China’s ageing and falling population therefore risks entering a debt trap. More and more money will be needed to refinance existing debt, accelerating the slowdown in the wider economy.
Europe’s chemical industry, and its economy, face an existential challenge
Time is not on Europe’s side. Hopefully, this crisis will now lead policymakers to take the urgent actions that are now essential.
2025 will be a year of ‘Known Unknowns’ – we know the problems, but not how they will play out
The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
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