Plastics recycling is set to become a major new industry, based on the need to use renewable carbon. As the Nova Institute has shown, there is scope to expand production by 15x by 2050. And so if plastics companies don’t get to work now, new entrants will quickly emerge to replace them.
Chemicals and the Economy
The New Normal for global industry
The global chemical industry is the third largest sector in the world behind agriculture and energy, and its outputs find their way into everything we consume. Paul Hodges, chairman of the pH Report, analyzes the chemical industry to give a unique perspective on the global economy to investors and corporations. In this timely discussion, he […]
Oil market weakness suggests recession now more likely than Middle East war
Oil markets remain poised between fear of recession and fear of a US attack on Iran. But gradually it seems that fears about a war are reducing, whilst President Trump’s decision to ramp up the trade war with China makes recession far more likely. The chart of Brent prices captures the current uncertainties: It shows […]
Chemical company results highlight growing weakness down the value chains
Looking down the table below of chemical company’s reports, its hard to be very optimistic about the outlook. The first half of the year disappointed, as I noted in August. Then Q3 saw major volatility as the hedge funds and high frequency traders played their games in the oil market – prices weakened as demand […]
Forget the IMF: global chemicals are your guide to future performance
The chemical industry provides a far better guide to the economic outlook than the IMF or any economic forecaster, as I describe in my latest post for the Financial Times, published on the BeyondBrics blog The global chemical industry has long been the best real-time indicator of the global economy. This is partly because of […]
Global demand slowdown hits chemical industry results
Its not been a great 6 months for the global chemical industry, and my usual quarterly survey of company results confirms the disappointment. The first half of the year is typically the strongest, for seasonal reasons, as companies come back to work after the Christmas holiday and prepare for the peak car-buying and construction periods […]
Global chemical operating rates remain below SuperCycle levels
Operating rates (OR%) rose to 84% in the global chemical industry in April, according to data from the excellent American Chemistry Council (ACC) weekly report. As the chart shows: This was back at January’s rate, after 83.6% in February and 83.7% in March (orange line) But rates are still below the minimum 88% rates seen in the SuperCycle (red) And they […]
Obama’s new Plan reveals “uncertainty”
The new ACC weekly report rightly notes that “any economic recovery will likely begin with a turnaround in the residential housing situation”. This is also the critical issue for the chemical industry, still reeling from last week’s Lyondell bankruptcy filing. Yet as the ACC’s chart shows above, no improvement is yet in sight. New home […]
Shell, BASF, ACC warn on US downturn
‘The sharp drop in housing starts and the developing credit crisis will flow into the cracker business’, according to Shell Chemical’s CEO Stacy Methvin. She added that ‘the housing crisis is more far-reaching than anyone anticipated’. Similarly, BASF is now more cautious about the potential impact of the US recession on its petchem business. Peter […]
China exports inflation
China has been a major source of price deflation for the past decade. It is now the world’s leading manufacturer of a whole range of products from microwaves to DVDs. And the rest of the world has benefited from the lower prices that it has provided. But not any more. The attached chart from the […]
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