95% of Indian households do not own a car. And as the chart above shows, motor cycles remain the key market for manufacturers. 2011-12 annual figures have now been published, and they show: • 70% of sales were motorbikes (light blue), versus 66% in 2010-11 • Car sales (purple) were steady at 14% • Overall, […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Nissan targets Datsun at the $3000 auto market
It would be nice to believe that there are billions of middle-class people in emerging countries. And even nicer to imagine they are just waiting for the chance to buy expensive Western goods. Sadly, the truth is more prosaic. 96% of China’s population earn less than $7600/year. Their daily wage would be an hourly wage […]
EU auto sales down 7% versus 2011
Mario Draghi, new head of the European Central Bank (ECB), is extremely good at doing deals. He learnt his trade at Goldman Sachs, and then polished his skills whilst running the Bank of Italy. But unfortunately, deal-making skills are not enough to rescue the European economy. Earlier this month Draghi persuaded the ECB Board to […]
US jobs, auto sales still below pre-Crisis levels
The above 2 charts show US jobs and car sales on a monthly basis, side by side. They cover the years 2008 – 12, and the combination provides a clear message about demand trends: • The jobs total began to improve in 2011 (green line) • They rose 2m between January 2011 and last month […]
China’s auto dealers cut prices as inventories rise
All is not well with China’s auto market. On the surface, as the chart shows, sales appear to have picked up after January’s poor performance: • Q1 sales (red line) were flat versus 2011 (green) • Q2 sales were up 12%, due to a strong May and June performance But…. • It is unclear if […]
Risks rise over China’s auto sales
The world’s 3 major auto markets – USA, Europe and China – currently account for ~70% of global sales. And as the chart above shows, H1 performance has been volatile over the 2005-11 period: • 2005 was the last year of the US subprime boom, and the US (red) was easily the largest market with […]
China’s low-cost vehicle exports rise 43% in May
2 great myths are helping to destroy company profits as we transition to the New Normal: • In the West, it is that ‘recovery is just around the corner’ • In emerging economies, that everyone is now ‘middle class’ Sadly, this latter claim makes no sense at all. The reason is that it is based […]
EU auto sales fall 9% in May
Another month, and another downturn in the European car market. It was the largest regional market in the world as recently as 2009, when 13.3m cars were sold But as the chart shows. May (red square) saw sales down 9% versus 2011 (green line). This is the 8th consecutive month in which sales have fallen. […]
Average age of US auto fleet at record 11.1 years
US auto sales maintained a steady pace in May. As the chart shows (red square), they were 1.3m in the month, and are now up 13% versus 2011 (green line). The key driver remains the need to replace old vehicles. It is impossible to work or shop in many parts of the US without a […]
EU auto sales fall again
April was another bad month for EU auto sales. As the chart shows, based on ACEA data, sales were down 7% in April (red square) and down 8% versus 2011 (green line) in January – April. The only bright spot remains Germany, were sales were up 2% in the Jan-Apr period. It is now 24% […]
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