Time is not on Europe’s side. Hopefully, this crisis will now lead policymakers to take the urgent actions that are now essential.
Chemicals and the Economy
2025 will be a year of ‘Known Unknowns’ – we know the problems, but not how they will play out
The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
Chemicals must respond to demographic destiny
Demographic changes are now transforming the nature of demand in chemicals and other industries. Far-sighted companies around the world are already adapting their strategies for success in today’s New Normal.
China’s cheap, well-made, Electric Vehicles take centre stage at Paris Motor Show
2025 is therefore likely to be a make-or-break year for many European automakers. Chinese automakers can already export profitably into Europe, despite the new tariffs. And they will soon be opening European plants to avoid the tariffs altogether
OPEC+ risks losing control of oil markets
Oil traders have built a record bearish position in oil futures, as they expect consumption growth to stay weak. So it would be no surprise at all to see prices fall towards the $50/bbl level.
Gasoline/diesel auto sales have moved into long-term decline
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the focus moves from “precision engineering” to “software”.
The time for action to protect European chemicals is now
The critical test is now ahead – making it happen. Companies, investors and policymakers need to borrow Winston Churchill’s famous motto, “Action this Day”. As Sir Jim Ratcliffe has highlighted, the penalty for doing nothing will be closure.
‘Car Wars’ begin as US, EU and Turkey impose duties on Chinese electric vehicles
Europe and the USA are unlikely to handover the EV market to China. And so today’s Car Wars may well led to further tariffs on both sides.
The next few years could well be a bumpy ride for anyone involved in the auto industry and its supply chains.
OPEC+ starts to refocus on market share as demand growth weakens
OPEC would have been better advised to keep prices low to reduce non-OPEC supply. Instead, they are likely to face some difficult pricing decisions later in the year, if global growth continues to slow.
US and EU prepare for trade war with China on Electric Vehicles as auto demand patterns change
The world is now moving from today’s “Continuous Instability” into “Growing Disruption”. Real wars are already escalating in Europe and the Middle East. Trade wars are beginning. And Demand Patterns in key industries such as autos are starting to change very rapidly.
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