Autos are the largest single market for chemical and polymer sales. And the USA, China and EU are the 3 largest markets, accounting for 2/3rds of global sales last year. Disappointingly, as the above chart shows, their sales were up just 1% overall in Q1 versus 2011 at 10.6m. Even this gain was only due […]
Chemicals and the Economy
China lending jumps to hit $380bn Q1 target
China’s leaders have a lot to worry about. The purge of Bo Xilai has now been followed by news of his wife being suspected of murder. This makes the run-up to October’s leadership transition even more difficult. Only 3 months ago, Bo was being tipped by some to join the Politburo, and even to become […]
Beijing home prices fall 21% in Q1
Investment bankers and development economists like to talk about China being a ‘middle class’ country. Yet Asian Development Bank data shows that 96% of the population earn less than $20/day on a (PPP) Purchasing Power Parity basis. Similarly, China’s ‘luxury market’ remains very small. Latest data suggests it was just €12.9bn ($16.9bn) in 2011, or […]
Markets weaken as real problems remain unsolved
It is hard to be very optimistic about the demand outlook for Q2. Demand in Q1 was lacklustre, even though it should have been the strongest quarter of the year. H1 is seasonally strong, and Q1 also benefited from Easter being in Q2. Equally, the Chinese holidays fell in January, so February and March should […]
US PE exports down 39% despite shale gas
Globalisation had a golden age between 1982-2007. Trade barriers fell almost everywhere. Companies focused on achieving a ‘lowest cost’ position, in order to maximise their competitive advantage. Today, however, the world is starting to look quite different. The chart above summarises the changes underway. It shows US polyethylene net trade (PE) since 2009, based on […]
China’s polyethylene demand growth remains slow
There are increasing signs that China’s economic growth is slowing. Local gasoline and diesel prices are now (as in Europe) at record levels. Gasoline is Rmb 8.2/litre, the equivalent of $1.20/l, or $4.40/US gal. Unsurprisingly, this leaves people with very little spare cash, especially with food price inflation still at 6.2%. Equally, with rumours of […]
Why benzene trumps traditional economic indicators
The blog is very pleased to have been invited to contribute to the Financial Times’ new FT Data blog. Its first post looks at benzene’s excellent forecasting record during the current crisis. It also looks at what PTA may be telling us about the strength of China’s economy. Please click here if you would like […]
Chinese want affordability not luxury
The Financial Times has kindly published the letter below from the blog today. It argues that affordability, not luxury, is the key need in China, as income levels are very low by comparison with those in the West. From Mr Paul Hodges. Sir, Martin Wolf, in “How to blow away China’s gathering storm clouds” (March […]
China’s premier warns on Cultural Revolution risk
On 29 June 1987, the blog was in S Korea on a business trip. With its ICI Korea colleagues, it arrived at the company we were due to visit, to find the gate open. The offices were also deserted. Surprised, we walked into the factory to find 500 people watching a small black and white […]
Cotton prices slip as India reverses export ban
Cotton prices are falling again, since Monday’s reversal by the Indian government of its proposed ban on cotton exports. India is the world’s 2nd largest cotton exporter, after the USA, with 20% of the market: • On 5 March, its Textiles Ministry banned all exports • Domestic users had applied pressure to divert supplies to […]
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