Historians will not look kindly on Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank. They will ask what he thought he was doing, issuing an extra €1tn ($1.05tn) of debt from March 2015, when the Eurozone was already struggling under a dead-weight of government debt: In the big countries, Italy has $47k of debt per person; […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Oil price, China Outlook – free pH Report webinar tomorrow
There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forecast this development in mid-August: The first stage saw prices reach my initial forecast target of $70/bbl in November They then fell further to reach my second price target of $50/bbl in January Since then, prices have been trading in a wide range. Daily moves of $2/bbl, […]
Oil price rally a “Head Fake” says International Energy Agency
Why wouldn’t oil prices return to their long-term average around $30/bbl? After all, the world is facing a long-term energy supply glut. The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms my view that the recent rally has simply been a trading coup: “HEAD FAKE “Behind the façade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price […]
Fertility rates have collapsed in the world’s 10 largest economies
One of the great myths of our time is that the world’s population is inevitably growing. Almost everyone has heard that the population is certain to reach 9bn by 2050, from today’s 7.3bn. Yet births in 2013 in the G7 economies (almost half of the global economy) were at the lowest level since the Great Depression year […]
Apple captures smartphone profits as market shifts to services
Consumers clearly love smartphones. The global market is growing fast with 380m sold in Q4, up 31% versus 2013. But manufacturers might be forgiven for not being so sure. As the chart above shows, major change is underway in the market. The concept of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing as the market polarises between affordability and luxury. Samsung’s market share has dived from […]
Oil price, China Outlook – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday
There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forecast this development in mid-August: The first stage saw prices reach my initial forecast target of $70/bbl in November They then fell further to reach my second price target of $50/bbl in January Since then, prices have been trading in a wide range. Daily moves of $2/bbl, […]
China becomes net exporter of PVC as property bubble bursts
China’s property bubble is collapsing, with average house prices now down 10% from their peak. As agents Knight Frank note, “The developers have two to five years of stock to clear. So until that has been cleared, prices aren’t going up any time soon” We are also seeing more bankruptcies amongst property developers. These began a […]
Stock markets see Winners and Losers appear
The world’s major financial markets hit bottom exactly 6 years ago, on 6 March 2009. They then began their recovery, fuelled by expectations of a quick V-shaped recovery as a result of G20 stimulus plans. At that date, prices had fallen in all markets versus their pre-Crisis peaks: The world’s largest Index, the US S&P […]
Market volatility highlights dangers for Q2
Today’s market conditions are some of the most dangerous that I can ever remember. Of course, markets are always unpredictable. As UK prime minister Harold MacMillan noted in the 1960s, when asked what kept him awake at nights. “Events, dear boy, events”. But today’s markets have a 3-dimensional unpredictability: They have the normal issue of trying to understand fundamental levels […]
Chemical markets see major slowdown since Q2
Chemical production is a time-proven leading indicator for the global economy. And as the chart above shows, it has been signalling that a downturn is underway since April. Based on American Chemistry Council data, it highlights: Global growth peaked at 5% in April and was down to 3.3% in January (black line) Only the N American […]
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