One of the great myths of our time has been that vast numbers of people in the developing world have suddenly become “middle class”. This myth seemed to grow out of a confusion between the phrase “middle income” and “middle class”. Every country has people who are “middle income”. But as we discussed in Boom, Gloom […]
Chemicals and the Economy
The global collapse in fertility rates between 1970 – 2014
A blog reader has kindly sent me the maps above from BrilliantMaps.com. They highlight the dramatic collapse in fertility rates since 1970, which have nearly halved from a global average of 4.85 babies/woman to just 2.5 babies per woman today: Dark blue covers countries where rates are 1 – 2 babies/woman Light blue is […]
IMF’s Greek memo confirms VUCA world has arrived
The good news was that the Eurozone leaders did realise, at the last moment, that Sunday was a “moment of truth” for the currency union and for Europe. They spent 17 hours negotiating through the night as a result. But reports suggest it wasn’t an easy time: The BBC carried live reports of arguments between […]
Iran deal highlights “massively oversupplied” oil market
The oil market was the first to feel the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus nearly a year ago. It had completely lost its key role of price discovery due to the liquidity being supplied by the central banks. This had overwhelmed the fundamentals of supply/demand. And we are still living with the consequences […]
China’s auto prices tumble as sales fall 3% in June
Its not a good time to be selling new cars in China. As the chart shows: Sales fell 2% in Q2 (red line) versus 2014 (green), with June down 3.4% This is the first time sales have fallen in a quarter since Q1 2011 (pink) China’s auto dealer association said customer visits to dealers “dropped […]
Phase 2 of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus begins
Greece, Iran, China – suddenly real world issues are starting to dominate the headlines. And few people now believe that printing more money is the way to solve these issues. Instead, political leaders are being forced to take the hard decisions they have ducked for so long. Financial markets are clearly reflecting the change. They […]
Supply chain revolution is on the way
Imagine a world where your local garage uses 3D printing to provide you with a new car bumper. You have had a bump in a car park, and just want to get it fixed. Unlike today, there’ll be no more waiting for the part to arrive. The garage will simply download the design from the […]
Sunday is ‘moment of truth’ for Eurozone and Greece
“We should not forget the historic nature of what is at stake. “Its about whether a country can leave the euro zone and what that means for the future of an incomplete and flawed European Monetary Union. “Its about whether there may soon be a failed state in southeastern Europe with all the geopolitical consequences […]
H1 sees worst-ever number of chemical plant force majeures
The first half of 2015 was the worst half-year for force majeures in the chemical industry since reliable data became available via ICIS news in 2005. As the chart shows, there were 479 reports of outages, more than double H1 2014 and well above the previous peak of 375 in H1 2011. This is absolutely […]
Oil markets begin to slide as Great Unwinding resumes
Oil prices have fallen around $5/bbl, since my suggestion last week that a “New oil price fall was a matter of “when”, not “if”“. It thus seems increasingly likely they are resuming their fall back towards $30/bbl, as we discussed in last week’s pH Report webinar. Financial players clearly misread the market when they assumed […]
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