The smartphone market highlights how consumers are refocusing on ‘value for money’. New product sales are slowing in response to the cost-of-living crisis. More people are now happy buying a used model.
And global brands no longer have the same attraction if the local brand works as well, and is cheaper.
Chemicals and the Economy
Trump launches trade war with US’s top 3 trade partners; says Europe & key business sectors are next
“The Dumbest Trade War in History. Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.” Wall Street Journal editorial
China risks entering a debt trap as its housing bubble continues to deflate
Deflation means the real value of debt increases. This is the opposite of what happens with inflation, when its real value reduces. China’s ageing and falling population therefore risks entering a debt trap. More and more money will be needed to refinance existing debt, accelerating the slowdown in the wider economy.
Europe’s chemical industry, and its economy, face an existential challenge
Time is not on Europe’s side. Hopefully, this crisis will now lead policymakers to take the urgent actions that are now essential.
2025 will be a year of ‘Known Unknowns’ – we know the problems, but not how they will play out
The collapse of Asia’s main currencies versus the US$ confirms that our world is increasingly dominated by known unknowns. We know what the key issues might be, but we can only guess at how they might turn out.
La Niña effect increases natural gas prices as colder weather forecast for N America & Europe
Europe is also in the midst of what is forecast to be its coldest winter since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the continent already dipping deeper than usual into gas storage as temperatures plummet.
Europe’s economy loses its “engine”, as France follows Germany into political turmoil
Europe has been built through crisis since the end of World War 2. Today’s economic and political crises require a similar focus on reinvention.
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
Companies need to refocus to avoid over-capacity problems ahead
Today’s population growth is mainly due to increasing life expectancy, not babies being born. And these Perennials 55+ are the most under-served generation in history. Companies who pivot to meet their needs are likely to be very successful
Smartphone markets could see major changes as Trump rolls out his tariffs
The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been selling his shares. Apple was once half of his equity portfolio. But over the past year, he has sold 2/3rds of his holding. And Buffett doesn’t normally sell shares when he thinks the company will do well.