China is Trump’s main target. He has claimed that China will pay the extra cost. But US consumers know better. They rushed to buy in March before prices rose. Q1 US sales were up 12% as Apple flew-in 1.5m iPhones ahead of the start of the tariffs.
Chemicals and the Economy
Trump’s Tariff War risks empty US shelves at Walmart, Target, Home Depot
Last week, the CEOs of 3 of the largest US retailers told Trump that “His tariff and trade policy could disrupt supply chains, raise prices and empty shelves.” The heads of Wal-Mart, Target and Home Depot suggested the disruptions would become obvious in early May – only 2 weeks away.
Smartphone sales confirm how ‘value for money’ is starting to drive consumer demand
The smartphone market highlights how consumers are refocusing on ‘value for money’. New product sales are slowing in response to the cost-of-living crisis. More people are now happy buying a used model.
And global brands no longer have the same attraction if the local brand works as well, and is cheaper.
Smartphone markets could see major changes as Trump rolls out his tariffs
The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been selling his shares. Apple was once half of his equity portfolio. But over the past year, he has sold 2/3rds of his holding. And Buffett doesn’t normally sell shares when he thinks the company will do well.
China’s cheap, well-made, Electric Vehicles take centre stage at Paris Motor Show
2025 is therefore likely to be a make-or-break year for many European automakers. Chinese automakers can already export profitably into Europe, despite the new tariffs. And they will soon be opening European plants to avoid the tariffs altogether
VW’s job cuts highlight challenges facing Europe’s auto industry
Chinese auto companies see Europe as a major opportunity. They are already investing in local plants to avoid import tariffs. European legacy companies such as VW need to move quickly to head off the threat. But their culture is slow-moving and cautious. They risk becoming Losers in today’s New Normal market.
Gasoline/diesel auto sales have moved into long-term decline
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the focus moves from “precision engineering” to “software”.
Smartphone sales continue to slow as consumer demand patterns change
Q1 data showed that many consumers are tightening their belts and focusing on value for money. But investors don’t yet seem to have noticed, and are bidding up Apple’s share price to euphoric levels.
US and EU prepare for trade war with China on Electric Vehicles as auto demand patterns change
The world is now moving from today’s “Continuous Instability” into “Growing Disruption”. Real wars are already escalating in Europe and the Middle East. Trade wars are beginning. And Demand Patterns in key industries such as autos are starting to change very rapidly.
All happy property owners are alike, each unhappy owner is unhappy in their own way
“The entire commercial real estate space has to reset. No one really knows where the values are…You can’t raise rates this quickly and not expect a financial shock. We’re already working on transactions at 50% on the dollar: the equity is wiped out and half of the loan is wiped out.”
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