The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, has been selling his shares. Apple was once half of his equity portfolio. But over the past year, he has sold 2/3rds of his holding. And Buffett doesn’t normally sell shares when he thinks the company will do well.
Chemicals and the Economy
China’s cheap, well-made, Electric Vehicles take centre stage at Paris Motor Show
2025 is therefore likely to be a make-or-break year for many European automakers. Chinese automakers can already export profitably into Europe, despite the new tariffs. And they will soon be opening European plants to avoid the tariffs altogether
VW’s job cuts highlight challenges facing Europe’s auto industry
Chinese auto companies see Europe as a major opportunity. They are already investing in local plants to avoid import tariffs. European legacy companies such as VW need to move quickly to head off the threat. But their culture is slow-moving and cautious. They risk becoming Losers in today’s New Normal market.
Gasoline/diesel auto sales have moved into long-term decline
The global auto market is going through major change. Gasoline/diesel cars seem set for major decline as the market transitions to EVs. In turn, business models are also set to change as the focus moves from “precision engineering” to “software”.
Smartphone sales continue to slow as consumer demand patterns change
Q1 data showed that many consumers are tightening their belts and focusing on value for money. But investors don’t yet seem to have noticed, and are bidding up Apple’s share price to euphoric levels.
US and EU prepare for trade war with China on Electric Vehicles as auto demand patterns change
The world is now moving from today’s “Continuous Instability” into “Growing Disruption”. Real wars are already escalating in Europe and the Middle East. Trade wars are beginning. And Demand Patterns in key industries such as autos are starting to change very rapidly.
All happy property owners are alike, each unhappy owner is unhappy in their own way
“The entire commercial real estate space has to reset. No one really knows where the values are…You can’t raise rates this quickly and not expect a financial shock. We’re already working on transactions at 50% on the dollar: the equity is wiped out and half of the loan is wiped out.”
Western automakers face a race to catch up as Chinese EVs arrive
Automakers have very little time – maybe as little as 5 years – to reposition themselves to meet today’s market needs. They need to develop an integrated EV supply chain. And they also need to follow Stellantis’ lead and go back to selling affordable cars costing €25k.
Used smartphones take 21% of global smartphone sales; Samsung declines as middle market disappears
These changes in demand patterns are not just impacting Apple and the smartphone market. They are already impacting suppliers to the market. And they are also starting to impact a vast range of other major consumer markets.
Gasoline/diesel cars are now less than 50% of European sales as EVs and hybrids surge
These paradigm shifts are coming at the same time as the loss of the peace and demographic dividends. They are taking our world in a new direction. The likely Winners will be those companies and investors who focus on becoming demand-led.
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