Evergrande’s default will only be the first of many. Companies and countries that have “bet the ranch” on China’s “perpetual motion machine” need to urgently decide how to minimise their potential losses, whilst there is still time.
Chemicals and the Economy
It is time for the central banks to give up their outdated economic models, and focus instead on the science of demographics. Their efforts to create economic growth by ‘printing babies’ have simply created a debt bubble. This will likely now burst as Evergrande goes bankrupt.
“What goes up, comes down” is usually a good motto when prices start to reach for the skies. As the great investor Bob Farrell noted in his 10 Rules, they usually go further than you think. But they don’t then correct by going sideways. The charts showing US lumber prices, China coal prices and the […]
Net Zero is clearly the key issue of our time. With COP26 about to start, 3 key elements need to come together to ensure success. Political leaders have to agree to meet the Net Zero targets, and to provide $100bn/year to help poorer nations fund the changes needed. But nothing will happen on the ground […]
The US stock market bubble just keeps rising. And every investor “knows” that the US Federal Reserve will never let it burst. But the Fed can’t control the fallout from the bursting of China’s ‘subprime on steroids’ real estate bubble. Could this also mean the end of the Fed’s bubble? There is no doubt that […]
Unsurprisingly, it turns out that Brexit still isn’t “oven-ready”, despite the UK government’s promises back in 2019. Instead, as many of us pointed out all along (and The Times cartoon confirms), it is set to lead to years of dislocation and disruption for the UK economy. Of course, the pandemic made things worse. But it […]
My letter in today’s Financial Times warning of the risk to Western financial markets from the bursting of China’s property bubble. Many “valuations are, after all, at more extreme levels than in 2008, due to the belief that China’s demand growth is unstoppable.”
China is at the start of its biggest economic shake-up since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping launched his post-Mao reform programme. President Xi Jinping’s ‘Common Prosperity’ policy aims to retain his focus on increasing living standards. But it wants to spread the wealth far more widely. The electricity rationing now underway across China highlights the need […]
Last month saw the beginning of the end for the central banks’ 20-year experiment with stimulus. They thought they could overcome demographic pressures from ageing populations by printing bucket-loads of money at zero interest rates to support housing and stock markets. Now they are finally realising this was wishful thinking. The policy reversal began with […]
‘Business as usual’ seems a most unlikely outcome as we look forward over the next 6 months. The pandemic may well bring further trials for us to endure. We also have to set budgets for the next few years, and so we will need new strategies and business models to respond to the Net Zero […]