The Bank of England’s quarterly survey of corporate credit conditions, published today, shows that companies are finding it harder to get credit, and that rates are rising. This is in spite of the massive liquidity injections made by the Bank over the past 6 months, and its 0.5% interest rate cut. The Bank says that […]
Chemicals and the Economy
‘Don’t panic’ say Dow, BASF
Its not normally a good sign when chemical industry bosses feel the need to cheerlead on the outlook for the economy. Dow’s CEO Andrew Liveris therefore caught my attention at Davos, when he told CNBC that talk of recession was ‘over-reaction’. Particularly when he then corrected himself, adding that what he had meant to say […]
US banks tighten as the Fed eases
The US Fed has dramatically cut interest rates by 1.25% recently. But as it eases, so US banks seem to be tightening their lending criteria for mortgages. Present standards are the tightest recorded Since 1990, the Fed has asked banks about their lending standards. The chart above (by Merrill Lynch) shows the results. From 1992-2006, […]
Wal-Mart sales ‘below expectations’
‘‘I despair at times at why the equity markets can’t see how serious the credit crunch is’, said one senior credit analyst at an investment bank. ‘They just trade off the day-to-day newsflow’. This interview from yesterday’s Financial Times reminds me of last July, when I noted how financial markets seemed to have become divorced […]
Dow, Basell, BASF, SABIC owed $5m in Plastech bankruptcy
Chemical companies tend to trade on ‘open book’ terms with long-established customers. They are also supportive when those customers are facing problems in their end-markets. In a recession, these admirable qualities can become expensive. ICIS news reports tonight that the bankruptcy of Plastech Engineered Products in the US has led to debts of nearly $5m […]
US housing, China storms hit chemical demand
Andrew Liveris, Dow’s CEO, commented today that Dow now have ‘a total clampdown on costs and capital expenditure’. Whilst other CEO’s told the Financial Times that ‘rising oil prices, sagging consumer confidence and the on-going credit crunch’ are causing them to put in place ‘contingency plans to protect against the expected economic downturn’. Separately, Bill […]
IMF identifies ‘serious slowdown’
The credit crunch and associated debt crisis has elicited an unprecedented response from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Today, the head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kohn, told the Financial Times that the new IMF economic forecasts would ‘show a serious economic slowdown that needs a serious response’. Just last autumn, the IMF was calling for […]
CEO confidence falls
CEOs seem to be following CFOs in worrying about the impact of the credit crunch and debt crisis. The annual CEO survey by PwC of 1150 executives shows that fears of a downturn now top their list of concerns. US CEOs are much less confident than a year ago, with only 35% now ‘very confident’ […]
Selling the rallies
Stock markets are usually good indicators of future economic conditions. Their savage downturn since the start of the year suggests that investors now feel a growth slowdown is almost inevitable. Barrons (the major US investment paper) today highlights another very worrying development. It notes that ‘selling rallies aggressively is (now) more fruitful than buying every […]
2008 crude outlook
I had the opportunity last night to learn current thinking within the oil industry on the current outlook for oil markets, by attending the annual lecture of the British Institute of Energy Economists, kindly hosted by BP. A year ago, at the same event, the crude price was $51/bbl. Last night, the headlines were ‘major […]
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