The end of China’s real estate bubble will impact global supply chains, exports and growth
26th September 2021 by

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly....

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An Evergrande default could reset the Chinese, and global, economy
19th September 2021 by

China’s economy has been ‘subprime on steroids’ since the financial crisis in 2008...

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“When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen”, Bob Farrell
20th June 2021 by

In January, “everyone knew” that inflation was about to take off, and that the US$ was g...

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Chart of the Year – CAPE Index signals negative S&P 500 returns to 2030
20th December 2020 by

Each year, it seems there is only one candidate for Chart of the Year. And 2020 is no exception. It ...

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Economic risks rise as the lockdowns end
14th June 2020 by

It is now 13 years since I wrote the first post here, in June 2007. A lot has happened since then: ...

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China’s property sector is at the epicentre of the crisis
29th March 2020 by

A branch of Centaline Property Agency in Hong Kong © Bloomberg Indebted Chinese property developers...

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“They may ring their bells now, before long they will be wringing their hands”
15th March 2020 by

The wisdom of Sir Robert Walpole, the UK’s first premier, seems the only possible response to ...

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Will stock markets see a Minsky Moment in 2020?
5th January 2020 by

Few investors now remember the days when price discovery was thought to be the key role of stock mar...

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Chart of the Decade – the Fed’s support for the S&P 500 will end with a debt crisis
22nd December 2019 by

Each year, there has been only one possible candidate for Chart of the Year.  Last year it was the ...

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$50bn hole appears in New York financial markets – Fed is “looking into it”
29th September 2019 by

Most people would quickly notice if $50 went missing from their purse or wallet. They would certainl...

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