Many investors and policymakers believe that the global economy is just in a ‘soft patch’. They expect a quick recovery early in 2012. This parallels their misguided confidence in Q1 that a strong recovery was underway. But petchem markets, a much more reliable indicator, are suggesting we are at the start of a sustained downturn. […]
Chemicals and the Economy
Amsterdam conference highlights megatrends
Attendees heard some very high quality speeches during our annual European Conference in Amsterdam this week. Organised as usual with ICIS, they covered a wide range of critical topics: Patrick Thomas, CEO of Bayer MaterialScience, delivered an inspiring keynote address on Day 1, focusing on the contribution that the petchems industry can make to solve […]
European ethylene volumes at decade lows
Europe’s cracker operators are heading into a crisis, again, for the 2nd time in 3 years. The chart above, based on official APPE data, compares quarterly ethylene volumes since 2000. It shows: • 2011’s total Q1-Q3 volume of 15.2MT was one of the lowest in the period • Only 2000-1 and 2009 saw lower volumes […]
Global auto sales growth slows
The blog’s regular look at October’s auto sales in the 3 main markets (China, US, EU) shows growth is slowing, not accelerating. China’s sales were lower than September, as the subsidy ended on small engine cars. Its pace of growth is also slowing. Year to date sales are only up 6% versus 2010, compared to […]
BabyBoomers change the markets
Consumption dominates chemical demand. Chapter 7 of our new ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ eBook therefore looks at the changes taking place in consumer markets. These provide vital insight into how chemical markets are likely to develop in the New Normal. The key learning is that companies are re-adapting their business models. The great […]
Policy makers talk, whilst markets weaken
Petchem markets are telling us something very important about the state of the global economy. They are doing their usual job as leading indicators. Prices for all 4 of the blog’s benchmark products are now down over 20% since it launched the IeC Downturn Monitor at the end of April. The OECD’s leading indicators also […]
EU auto sales hit new lows
Autos are now the single biggest market for petchem sales. They are also reported very quickly. So October’s EU auto sales provide the best real-time picture of the downturn now underway. As the chart shows: • October’s sales (red square) were the lowest in recent years • Total sales since January are also the lowest […]
US farmland enters the New Normal
The downturn in the US housing market is turning out to have a silver lining, according to the Wall Street Journal. It describes how farmers in some areas are now able to buy back land previously sold for housing development, and return it to agricultural use: • Residential land value has fallen 70% since the […]
Brent oil prices stay in their “triangle”
English children have a nursery rhyme that seems to summarise price movements in Brent oil markets: “Oh, The grand old Duke of York, He had ten thousand men; He marched them up to the top of the hill, And he marched them down again. And when they were up, they were up, And when they […]
China’s debt problems multiply
It seems increasingly clear that China’s economic policy took a wrong turning 10 years ago, when it joined the World Trade Organisation. 2001 was also the year when the Western BabyBoomers (those born between 1946-70), began to leave the peak consumption age group of 25-54 years. As they entered the 55+ age range, and the […]
Jump to page: